916
FXUS61 KGYX 280631
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
231 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A BUILDING
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL STARTING TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
2. A SOAKING RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING
3. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND TODAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY WARM DAY. HIGHS WARM INTO
THE 60S ACROSS MOST INLAND LOCATIONS, WITH LOW 70S LIKELY
THROUGH THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS
OFFSHORE, A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS BY LATE MORNING, AND WILL BE
MORE PRONOUNCED THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS' BREEZES. HIGHS MAINLY
TOP OUT IN THE 50S ALONG THE COAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS THEN BEGIN
TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
THE DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT LOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL DOWN INTO THE 30S
OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, CLOUDS INCREASE AS A CUT OFF OCEAN
STORM DRIFTS WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE. BY LATE IN THE
DAY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST AND THROUGH MUCH OF MAINE. AN EASTERLY FLOW AND MORE
CLOUD COVER KEEPS MUCH OF MAINE AND THE NH SEACOAST IN THE 50S
ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE INTERIOR NH WARMS INTO THE 60S WITH MORE
SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL IS STILL ON TAP FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY THURSDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PWATS RISE TO ABOUT AN INCH,
INDICATING A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ENSEMBLE MEANS CONTINUE TO
SHOW RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-2" RANGE, ALTHOUGH SOME WETTER
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL SUGGEST LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 3"
ARE POSSIBLE. EVEN WITH THESE AMOUNTS, WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY
HYDRO ISSUES GIVEN THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AND LONGER
DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, BUT RAIN COULD STILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF MAINE MAY ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION TOTALS LOCALLY. WITH A STRONG PUSH OF ONSHORE
WINDS, COULD SEE BREEZY EAST WINDS AT THE COAST; SOME GUSTS MAY
GET UP TO AROUND 30 MPH. NOT EXPECTING THESE WINDS TO MAKE IT
FAR INLAND HOWEVER. WINDS FLIP DIRECTION TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS NORTH INTO CANADA. IT MAY BE ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY, THIS TIME STRETCHING INLAND HOWEVER.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD STEADIER RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY FRIDAY, IT
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE PATTERN STAGNATES WITH RIDGING IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER NEW ENGLAND. PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE, POSSIBLY FAVORED DURING THE DAY AS A
COLD POOL ALOFT COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING PROVIDES SOME FORCING
FOR SHOWERS. GIVEN COLD AIR ABOVE, FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE
QUITE LOW, INDICATING CHANCES FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW.
THERE'S ANOTHER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AROUND SUNDAY
BUT IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THOSE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS SUGGESTING THE
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP (MAINLY IN THE GFS CAMP) DEPICT ANOTHER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WHILE MOST OF THE ECMWF MEMBERS ARE
DRIER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. AT THE LEAST, THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE
OVER THE NORTHEAST US AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND SHOWERS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINE TERMINALS AND PSM BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOWERING CEILINGS DURING THE DAY FROM EAST TO
WEST. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY 00Z THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHRA ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. E WINDS AT 5-15
KTS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND
RA. E-SE WINDS OF 15-25 KTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
FRIDAY: RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE BUT WITH SOME POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT.
WEST WINDS AT 15-25 KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY. A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM A
DISTANT OCEAN STORM BUILDS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH WAVES REACHING 5FT
TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING.
SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 3-6 FT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, LIKELY YIELDING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
AT LEAST SCA CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, A PERIOD OF E-SE WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 KTS IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY W
WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND PENOBSCOT BAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CLAIR/SCHROETER
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