565
FXUS61 KGYX 282345
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
745 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS THE NEAR TERM
REMAINS QUIET, AND TRENDS FOR THE UPCOMING SYSTEM REMAIN STEADY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOISTURE INCREASES TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
2. A COASTAL LOW ARRIVES IN THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SOAKING RAIN LIKELY ON THURSDAY.
3. UNSETTLED AND CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DAILY RAIN SHOWER CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS FUNNY AS IT SOUNDS, ONSHORE FLOW IS ACTUALLY IN THE PROCESS
OF PUSHING DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT (MID TO UPPER 30S), WITH SIMILAR-TO-LAST-NIGHT LOW TO
MID-30S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
COLUMN DRY, BUT CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW IS GOING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS AND LEAD TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING. I WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST, BUT COULD SEE
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOP INLAND AS WELL. THIS IS GOING TO
MAKE FOR A RAW DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN
AND MOST OF WESTERN MAINE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. FOR MUCH
OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO THICKEN, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
NORTHEAST, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
UPSTATE NEW YORK. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING, AND LOOKS TO OCCLUDE. THE OCCLUDED LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY,
WITH A QUICK INITIAL 0.5-1 INCH OF RAIN OR SO ACROSS THE AREA.
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDCOAST AS THE MID- LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT FURTHER
NEGATIVELY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS
AT LEAST CENTRAL MAINE AND THE MIDCOAST THURSDAY EVENING, WITH
SOME OF THE EXTRA RAINFALL POTENTIALLY REACHING THE WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS AS WELL. WHILE THIS DOES APPEAR TO BE AN IDEAL
STORM TRACK TO BRING A LOT OF RAINFALL TO THE MIDCOAST,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S ON
THURSDAY. THIS LIMITS HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED, AS
SHOWN BY PWAT VALUES IN THE AREA OF 1.0". THIS IS ONLY 1
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE AVERAGE AND WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUSLY
HIGH RAINFALL EVENTS, IS ACTUALLY EXTREMELY DRY. SO RAINFALL IS
LIKELY TO BE PRETTY INEFFICIENT WHICH MEANS THAT LESS RAIN IS
FORECAST COMPARED TO WHAT GUIDANCE HAS INITIALLY.
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY,
AROUND 3/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST, WITH MORE RAIN CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. ACROSS THE MIDCOAST,
COASTAL PLAIN AND FOOTHILLS, A LITTLE OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS
LIKELY WITH SOME LOCAL TOTALS NEARING 2.5 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND ROCKLAND AND CAMDEN. SOME UNCERTAINTY DOES REMAIN ON
EXACTLY WHERE THIS QPF "BULLSEYE" SETS UP, AND THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE HIGHEST QPF ENDS UP A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST, OVER
SOUTHERN HANCOCK COUNTY. HOWEVER, MORE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PLUS
THE LITTLE BIT OF HI-RES GUIDANCE AVAILABLE SHOW A STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR THIS BULLSEYE TO BE OVER THE MIDCOAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND, AND WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO
PERSIST. LOW FREEZING LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS SNOW IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
IN THE TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MARINE STRATUS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE WILL
SURGE INLAND BETWEEN AROUND 01Z AND MIDNIGHT. CIGS LOOK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO 2000 FT THAT I WILL START THEM AROUND 1500 FT, WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT THEY CONTINUE TO LOWER NEAR THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR AROUND 08Z TO 10Z. TOWARDS
MORNING SOME DRIZZLE MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP. IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE COAST THRU THE DAY, BUT
THE INTERIOR MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR. LEB AND HIE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS RAIN MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
THURSDAY: MVFR EXPECTED DUE TO RAIN.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: VFR WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS.
MARINE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS GOING TO BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS
6-8 FEET BEGINNING TONIGHT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND AT THE MOUTH OF
CASCO BAY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GOING TO REMAIN EASTERLY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-20
KNOTS.
SOUTHEASTERLY SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. 5-8FT SEAS
EXPECTED. WINDS GO BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO
WESTERLIES. SEAS LOWER TO 4-6FT FRIDAY MORNING. SUB-SCA
WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND, WITH 2-4FT SEAS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/PALMER
AVIATION...LEGRO
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