390
FXUS61 KGYX 290643
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE
PRECIPITATION CHARACTER RAIN RATHER THAN SHOWERS WHERE POP IS
GREATER THAN 75 PERCENT, AND ADDED PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TODAY
INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS, WE RETURN TO WET WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. DREARY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADY,
SOAKING RAINS BY THURSDAY.
2. A COOL PATTERN SETTLES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WET WEATHER IS SET TO RETURN THIS MORNING. IT WILL BEGIN WITH A
GRADUALLY MOISTENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
THRU SUNRISE AND BY THEN SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CAM GUIDANCE IS ALSO INSISTENT THAT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LARGELY
DRY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE, SO I TEND THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. THAT BEING SAID, SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS
PRESENT, SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THRU THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES WITH IT. AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB, AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THU. THE MAIN FRONT AND STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THU, SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY. MUCH
LIKE TODAY THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL 1 TO 2 INCHES AVERAGE QPF OVER THE TWO DAYS. THIS WILL
BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, HELPING TO EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND PUSH GREEN UP FARTHER
ALONG.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE THURSDAY SYSTEM DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND, A TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH THEN LINGERS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND LIKELY REMAINS IN THE PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS BRINGS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS
WITH NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE 50S EACH DAY DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
40S MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AREAS.
ALONG THE COAST, THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ACTUALLY YIELD HIGHS
NEAR AVERAGE MOST DAYS BEFORE ANY LATE DAY SEA BREEZE.
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND COLD AIR ALOFT, ANY DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE
FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE WILL
BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF RAIN
LOOKS MOST LIKELY TO TRACK OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY BE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPANDING MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR,
AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT TO VFR AGAIN DURING THE DAY. ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO STAY VFR
THRU THE DAY. THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT AUG AND RKD IN THE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES ANY PRECIP LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONT.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS, OCCASIONALLY HEAVY WITH REDUCED VIS. SOME FOG IS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. SOME LLWS POSSIBLE FOR
PWM/AUG/RKD FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MVFR LIKELY IMPROVES TO VFR AT MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH SOME PERIODS MVFR AND SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5
FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THRU THIS EVENING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOME MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS
AT TIMES POSSIBLE. GRADUALLY WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY THU
AND SCA GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BEGINNING THIS MORNING, BUT CONTINUING THRU THU.
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND REDUCE VISIBILITY
THRU THU.
SEAS LIKELY SETTLE BELOW 5FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN FRESHENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/LEGRO
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