486
FXUS61 KGYX 291830
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
230 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MADE
PRECIPITATION CHARACTER RAIN RATHER THAN SHOWERS WHERE POP IS
GREATER THAN 75 PERCENT, AND ADDED PATCHY FOG BEGINNING TODAY
INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AFTER SEVERAL DRY DAYS, WE RETURN TO WET WEATHER THROUGH
THURSDAY. DREARY ONSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO STEADY,
SOAKING RAINS BY THURSDAY.
2. A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SHOWERY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH NO DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WET WEATHER IS SET TO RETURN THIS MORNING. IT WILL BEGIN WITH A
GRADUALLY MOISTENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LOWER
THRU SUNRISE AND BY THEN SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. CAM GUIDANCE IS ALSO INSISTENT THAT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LARGELY
DRY IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE, SO I TEND THINK ANY SHOWERS WILL
BE WIDELY SCATTERED. THAT BEING SAID, SOME ELEVATED CAPE IS
PRESENT, SO ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM MAY BE BRIEFLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY THRU THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AND MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASES WITH IT. AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB, AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
THU. THE MAIN FRONT AND STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THU, SWEEPING EAST OF THE AREA AROUND MIDDAY. MUCH
LIKE TODAY THERE WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
FOR OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE
OVERALL 1 TO 2 INCHES AVERAGE QPF OVER THE TWO DAYS. THIS WILL
BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, HELPING TO EASE DROUGHT CONDITIONS,
ALLEVIATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND PUSH GREEN UP FARTHER
ALONG.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TELECONNECTION INDICES SHOW -EPO/-NAO THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH H5 TROUGH AXIS /AND
ASSOCIATED COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ CENTERED OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY WITH MORNING SUN GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL TO BELOW 2KFT SO
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME GRAUPEL LIKELY IN
SPOTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TROUGHING BRIEFLY LIFTS ON MONDAY
BEFORE RECHARGING FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY TO PUSH COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGS WITH IT
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIMING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM BEGINS MAY 1 FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOWER
MERRIMACK VALLEY IN NH. UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS FOR THE
NIGHTS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH ESP AWAY FROM THE COASTAL ZONES
WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, NO WIDESPREAD HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
EXPANDING MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR,
AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT TO VFR AGAIN DURING THE DAY. ACROSS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO STAY VFR
THRU THE DAY. THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT AUG AND RKD IN THE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TAF SITES ANY PRECIP LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF
THE MAIN FRONT.
OUTLOOK:
VFR MORNINGS GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS /RAIN WITH SOME SNOW-GRAUPEL
POSSIBLE/ WITH SCATTERED MVFR RESTRICTIONS THIS WEEKEND. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH MORE WIDESPREAD VFR LIKELY ON MONDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON TUESDAY LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF RESTRICTIONS WITH
SHOWERS. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5
FEET ON THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THRU THIS EVENING
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH SOME MARGINAL SCA WIND GUSTS
AT TIMES POSSIBLE. GRADUALLY WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY BY THU
AND SCA GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
ALSO DEVELOP BEGINNING THIS MORNING, BUT CONTINUING THRU THU.
RAIN/SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND REDUCE VISIBILITY
THRU THU.
RESIDUAL SCAS DUE TO WAVES ARE LIKELY TO OPEN THE PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A BREAK IN WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK LIKELY
BRINGING HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/ARNOTT
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