094
FXUS61 KGYX 300559
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
159 AM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, IF ANYTHING RAINFALL
TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWN AS PRECIPITATION IS LOOKING MORE
SHOWERY AND MOVING FASTER THRU THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. BENEFICIAL, SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.
2. A COOL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS RESULTING IN AREAS OF DRIZZLE WITH
EMBEDDED RAIN SHOWERS. WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD I
ALLOW THE CHARACTER OF PRECIP TO MOVE AWAY FROM DRIZZLE FROM
THIS POINT FORWARD IN THE FORECAST. SO FAR VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
BEHAVING BUT PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU MORNING AS WELL.
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO CREEP INTO SOUTHWESTERN NH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR AND STEADILY PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU MORNING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO IN ADDITION
TO A RUMBLE OF THUNDER SOME OF THE RAINFALL RATES MAY BE BRIEFLY
HEAVY. DESPITE THAT THIS IS MOSTLY A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL GIVEN
BOTH THE LONG AND SHORT TERM DRYNESS. CURRENTLY 6 HR FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 INCHES. LOOKING AT THE
LATEST HREF, THE MAX QPF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 2.5 TO 3
INCHES. LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH
MORE SHOWERY HOWEVER, SO RAINFALL TOTALS MAY ULTIMATELY COME IN
WELL BELOW THAT POTENTIAL. SO WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITHOUT MUCH TROUBLE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
BE DURING THE MORNING, AND BEGIN TO CLEAR SOUTHWESTERN NH DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY
LINGER THRU MUCH OF TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE COOL PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
GREAT LAKES. THIS BRINGS DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS
THE NORTH, AND 50S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN. WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER ARE LIKELY EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
A COASTAL STORM TRACKING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY HAS TRENDED A BIT
FURTHER WEST SINCE YESTERDAY, BRINGING A STEADIER SHIELD OF RAIN
CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOULD THIS WESTWARD TREND CONTINUE, A
STEADIER ROUND OF RAIN WOULD BE EXPECTED, SO IT'S WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE COMING MODEL RUNS. AFTER SUNDAY, THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD COME ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS TO IFR
OR LOWER FOR ALL TERMINALS THRU THURS AFTERNOON. LLWS REMAINS
POSSIBLE AT RKD THRU MID MORNING AS STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT CROSS
THE AREA. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE MTNS. HIE MAY LINGER AROUND
MVFR CIGS AS OPPOSITE WILL BE TRUE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TERRAIN.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, WITH SOME PERIODS MVFR
AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT PERIODS OF MVFR AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHERLY THRU MORNING AND
INCREASE. SCA GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL WATERS BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OUTER CASCO BAY AS SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY.
SEAS LIKELY SETTLE BELOW 5FT BY SATURDAY MORNING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO SATURDAY. A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY TRACKS OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE ON
SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN FRESHENS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ151.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/LEGRO
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