539
FXUS61 KGYX 010652
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
252 AM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WENT A LITTLE COOLER ON DEWPOINTS AND AS A RESULT LOWERED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURING THE DAY. A COASTAL STORM ON SUNDAY
CONTINUES TO TRACK SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A BRIEF RESPITE FROM UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY, BUT
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
2. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO BRING COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHILE A COASTAL STORM TRACKS OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
3. WARMER WEATHER MAKES A RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
GRADUAL CLEARING WILL CONTINUE THRU MORNING AS NORTHWEST WINDS
DOWNSLOPE AND SCATTER OUT THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER/MOISTURE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRETTY DEEP MIXING TODAY, THRU AT LEAST
850 MB. THIS SUGGESTS DEWPOINTS COULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
20S TO UPPER TEENS. THIS RESULTS IN A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF
20 TO 25 PERCENT MINIMUM RH, BUT WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
THE ENTIRE AREA JUST RECEIVED A SOAKING RAIN. SO WHILE DRY THE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE RELATIVELY LOW.
PRECIP CHANCES RETURN TONIGHT, ALBEIT NOT VERY ORGANIZED
CHANCES. COLD POOL SWINGS THRU ALOFT AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS TO POP UP. IT WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY CHILLY THRU THE COLUMN AND POTENTIALLY PRETTY DRY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THE STRONGEST OF THE SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN SOME
GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL MIXING IN WITH RAIN AT TIMES. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
COOL CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OFFSHORE, LIKELY BRINGING A
PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN TO AT LEAST THE COAST. THIS STORM HAS
CONTINUED IT'S WESTWARD TREND OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH
COASTAL AREAS LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THIS STORM WILL BE EJECTING
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND TRACKING UP THE COAST. IN WINTER,
THESE SOUTHERN STREAM STORMS THAT EJECT FROM THE SOUTH TEND TO
TREND FURTHER NORTH AND WEST UP UNTIL THE EVENT, WHICH WAS
OBSERVED ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS THIS PAST WINTER. WHETHER THIS
RULE HOLDS TRUE INTO MAY REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT THERE IS REASON
TO BELIEVE THIS STORM COULD CONTINUE TO COME FURTHER WEST
STILL.
ANOTHER REASON TO WATCH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM IS THAT
ANOTHER 50 MILES FURTHER WEST AND THE PRECIP SHIELD WOULD PUSH
INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SHOULD THE
PRECIP MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST, TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HEAVIER
PRECIP RATES WOULD ONLY FURTHER SUPPORT THIS. IT'S TOO EARLY TO
CALL FOR THIS, BUT IT IS A POTENTIAL SCENARIO TO BE CONSIDERED.
THE SYSTEM THEN PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
PART OF THE PATTERN BRINGING THE SUNDAY SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE
COAST ALSO SUPPORTS MORE OF A WARM UP EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WITH RETROGRADING THE
TROUGH TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS ALSO PROVIDES THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A NARROW RIDGE TO BUILD
IN ALONG THE EAST COAST, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD. HIGHS IN THE 60S LOOKS TO MAKE A RETURN FOR MONDAY,
THEN 70S ARE LIKELY BY TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BUT THE RETROGRADING PATTERN HAS ALSO CAUSED THIS FEATURE TO
ARRIVE MUCH LATER. THINKING A COUPLE DAYS AGO WAS THAT THIS
FRONT WOULD BE HERE ON TUESDAY, BUT NOW THERE'S QUESTION IF IT
WILL EVEN REACH NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY. THIS KEEPS AT LEAST ONE
MORE WARM DAY ON THE TABLE FOR WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
THEN INCREASE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AND LOCALIZED
AS WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DOWNSLOPE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA TODAY. SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE MTNS. WIDESPREAD VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING LIKELY
EVEN BRINGING ANY CIGS WELL ABOVE ALL BUT THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT:
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. IFR BASES POSSIBLE
NEAR THE COAST ALONG WITH SOME FOG. SHRA FOR COASTAL TERMINALS,
UNCERTAIN IF THESE MAKE IT TOWARDS AUG/CON.
SUNDAY: MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SHRA.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS VFR SW TO NE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED, BUT SOME
MARINE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST STARTING TUESDAY.
MARINE
WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE UNTIL SAT, BUT GENERALLY REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. SEAS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET ON THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO THIS AFTERNOON SCA CONTINUES FOR THOSE ZONES
AND THE OUTER PORTIONS OF CASCO BAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD JUST
OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY FLOW AND
BUILDING SEAS. SOUTHERLY FLOW THEN INCREASES BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152>154.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/LEGRO/MLE
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