223
FXUS61 KGYX 011829
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
229 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER CHANCES HAVE BEEN INCREASED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TRENDING WARMING FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW RETURN
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOLER THIS WEEKEND.
2. A PERIOD OF WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING ON TUESDAY IN THE
70S.
3. UNSETTLE WEATHER RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN BRINING ANOTHER BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAIN TO THE REGION. THIS
PERIOD OF RAIN AND WARMTH WILL JUMP START THE GREEN-UP, ENDING THE
SPRING FIRE SEASON FOR COASTAL AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DRY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE
DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND WINDS FADE AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.
SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR INITIALLY, AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER,
LOOKING TO THE WEST, AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
ALOFT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THIS FEATURE
WILL APPROACH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING. AS IT DOES
SO, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT HOW QUICKLY IS KEY TO
HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GET BEFORE LEVELING OFF OR EVEN COMING UP.
AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD STAY CLEARER FOR A LONGER
DURATION, SO TEMPS MAY STILL REACH THE LOW-MID 30S TO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST. FARTHER TO THE WEST WHERE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN FASTER,
I HAVE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
SECONDLY, THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF RAIN
SHOWERS INTO NH AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
EXPANSION TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN ME OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS THEN LIKELY THROUGH THE
REST OF SATURDAY (AND MAYBE A STORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN NH) AS
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW/LIFT CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN UPPER
LOW SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF
SHOWER COVERAGE THE REST OF THE DAY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OUTSIDE
OF SHOWERS, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LIMIT SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S, POSSIBLY 40S IN SOME AREAS.
AS AN ASIDE, IT WILL BE MORE WINTER-LIKE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW AND SUBFREEZING WIND CHILLS MAKING FOR
DANGEROUS HIKING CONDITIONS. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CAN'T RULE OUT SNOW BRIEFLY MIXING IN
FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN VALLEY FLOORS, BUT ACCUMULATION IS NOT
EXPECTED.
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE N/NNE OFFSHORE
OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT'S EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, BUT YET STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST AND EVEN MORESO THE MIDCOAST AND KENNEBEC VALLEY. THESE
AREAS HAVE 60-80% RAIN CHANCES WITH OVER 0.50" OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DIMINISH WITH NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT
BUT COULD FURTHER INCREASE IF THE LOW TRENDS WESTWARD AND VICE
VERSA IF IT TRENDS MORE TO THE EAST. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY ALSO GET A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH
POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A RETROGRADING
THE TROUGH FURTHER WEST OVER EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED UPWARD
TREND IN HEIGHT RISES OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC AS THE BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL OPEN UP THE REGION TO
PERSIST AND RELATIVELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WAA STARTING MONDAY AND
LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING 850MB OF +14C TO THE
REGION AND STRONG ENOUGH GRADIENT FLOW TO PREVENT THE SEA BREEZE
FRONT FROM PENETRATING INLAND MUCH. THE RESULT WILL BE 60S ON
MONDAY AND 70S ON TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY
BACK INTO THE 60S AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE, BUT
SOME 70S COULD BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR SOUTHERN NH. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO RAPID GREEN-UP AFTER THE RECENT RAIN WITH LEAVES
BEGINNING TO COME OUT IN EARNEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED SOAKING RAINS LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A BROAD 500MB TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH,
BUT MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT IN VICINITY OF THE GULF
OF MAINE, WITH A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
MOVING NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER ON THURSDAY BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN. NBM MEAN HAS A STRONG SIGNAL AT THIS POINT EVEN
WITH THE LONG LEAD TIME OF 1+ INCHES OF RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
THIS TRENDS, BUT WITH GREEN-UP COMING INTO FULL GEAR, THIS WILL BE
OPTIMAL TIMING TO HELP DROUGHT CONDITIONS AS SURFACE WATER DEPLETION
WILL BEGIN TO KICK INTO FULL GEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR INTO THIS EVENING. A ROUND OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
AT LEB AND HIE.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CIGS RANGING FROM MVFR TO VFR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY ALSO PRODUCE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM A LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR IFR ARE CURRENTLY FOR THE
WESTERN ME TERMINALS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS, BUT IF
THE LOW TRENDS FARTHER WEST, CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NH. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD ALSO GUST TO
20-25 KT AT TIMES. IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, MVFR CIGS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MIDDAY: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED, WITH GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING: UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN BY THURSDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS SEAS REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 5 FT. THESE WILL THEN
SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE. WINDS TURN MORE NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE
PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. IT COULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BRING SCA LEVEL GUSTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
ANY WESTWARD TRENDS IN THE LOW THAT MAY BRING GUSTS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER MONDAY AND
LAST INTO MID-WEEK. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. CURRENTLY
FEEL MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TO ROBUST ON SPEEDS DUE TO MORE
LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS AS SST REMAIN AROUND 50 DEGREES. EITHER
WAY, SCA ARE GUARANTEED, AND GALE WARNINGS ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/DUMONT
AVIATION...COMBS
MARINE...COMBS
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