243
FXUS61 KGYX 090643
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
243 AM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. STILL LOOKING COOLER
THAN NORMAL MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY
WEATHER. DID HOWEVER LOWER POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY AND MAIN
FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH FROST LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
2. EXPECT STEADY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME MORE SHOWERY ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
LATER, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL
MAINE. WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY WITH SOME MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS.
3. A FEW SHOWERY PERIODS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
MORNING WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE. THUS, FROST REMAINS LIKELY.
THE FROST ADVISORY OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH 12Z. FURTHER
INLAND, SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, BUT AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, HEADLINES WON'T BE ISSUED HERE AS THE
FROST/FREEZE SEASON BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY HASN'T STARTED YET.
LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTH, TO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING AND
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (40 TO 80 PERCENT WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES SOUTH) OF STEADY RAIN SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AROUND 15Z OR SO, GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. CAMS SUGGEST THAT INITIAL RAINFALL IN THE
MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY BE STEADY, BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON WE
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE/SHOWERY ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE. THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN 100 J/K OF MUCAPE OR SO, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THE MOMENT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST TONIGHT, BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
IN GENERAL, RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULDN'T BE OVERLY SIGNIFICANT.
NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST HIGH CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD 0.25
INCHES BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR 0.50 INCHES OR MORE ARE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL
MAINE. ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ACROSS THE SOUTH COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE SOME TOTALS.
THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
NORTH, TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE WHERE WE COULD SEE A FEW LOWER 70S. GIVEN
UNSETTLED FLOW, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH AT LOT OF THE COMING WEEK. THE MAIN RESULT WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN MIDWEEK
ONWARD. HOWEVER, WITH NO CONNECTION TO RICHER MOISTURE IT
APPEARS THAT WHATEVER RAIN FALL DURING THE WEEK WILL BE LIGHT
AND SHOWERY.
WE LOWERED POPS SOME FOR MONDAY AS IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN FLATTER AND FARTHER SOUTH RESULTING IN MOST PRECIPITATION
REMAINING OFFSHORE EXCEPT FOR SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL SHOWERS.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS WELL. THEREAFTER, CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INCREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN
PLACEMENT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. CEILINGS
THEN LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER TO IFR AS STEADY
LIGHT RAIN SETTLES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CON, MHT, PSM, OR PWM. HOWEVER, THUNDER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING LIKELY
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY: MVFR DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2-4FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ018>021.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ010-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/EKSTER
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