708
FXUS61 KGYX 092341
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER,
ESPECIALLY NEAR COASTAL AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS, AND
SOME POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS, WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST AND FRESHENED UP THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. STEADY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
STAY SHOWERY OVERNIGHT.
2. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
3. TEMPERATURES RUN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK,
FEATURING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWED BY CHANCE OF
AREAWIDE RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOW A BROAD SWATH
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS RAIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SOME DAYTIME
HEATING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY WEAK EMBEDDED CONVECTION. THE
EMBEDDED CONVECTION MAY INCLUDE A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER THIS
EVENING. THIS SLUG OF RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT,
THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SUNDAY MORNING, A DECAYING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LOW-TOP CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE, AS CAPE VALUES ARE
ONLY BETWEEN 200 AND 500J. LAPSE RATES, WHILE UNSTABLE ARE NOT STEEP
ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR MORE ROBUST STORMS. STORMS
LOOK TO INITIATE FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE OVER BY MID-AFTERNOON BUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND A COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS WEEK. THESE ARRIVE ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE GULF OF MAINE. THERE WILL BE
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN THE 700-800MB LAYER, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND THE
MOUNTAINS, IT COULD ALSO MEAN A PASSING SPRINKLE.
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL RUN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY
MAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS HOVER IN THE UPPER
50S TO THE LOWER 60S, WHERE CLIMATE NORMS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE
USUALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE COAST, OR MID TO UPPER
60S FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO INFLUENCE OF A
PASSING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WHILE THERE IS SOME MID-WEEK
RIDGING, IT WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND SEE INCREASED
DAYTIME CLOUD COVER AND OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN.
HIGH PRES MOVING OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT NW WINDS S
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT DO EXPECT A LULL DURING THE NIGHTTIME.
SHOULD MOISTURE ADVECTION BE WEIGHTED MORE DURING THE DAY WED,
TUESDAY NIGHT COULD GET CHILLY ENOUGH FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES TO THE FOOTHILLS. CALM WINDS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TO DECOUPLE, BUT ALSO NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW QUICKLY CIRRUS ARRIVES FROM THE SW.
MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO AGREE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY, ARRIVING TO NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN WHERE THE LOW
TRENDS AFTER IT PASSES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IMPACT
PRECIPITATION RESIDENCE TIME INTO LATE WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES VIA
CLUSTER ANALYSIS ARE SEPARATED BY THE STRENGTH OF PRE AND POST
RIDGING AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT FORCES THE LOW: FLATTER THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. THE FLATTER SOLUTION, POPULAR IN THE GEFS, IS
PREDICTABLY QUICKER. IT LIFTS GREATER PRECIP RATES THROUGH THE
CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING. DEEPER CUTTING SOLUTIONS, AMID THE GEPS
AND ENS, TRY TO CUT THE LOW OFF. THIS SPIRALS MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN IFR/LIFR DUE TO
RAIN AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO
IMPROVE WITH MORE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT
THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC TAF SITE. FOR NOW,
WILL UTILIZE PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE
AFTERNOON. CEILING WISE, SUNDAY WILL LIKELY START WITH IFR BUT
IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH THE LOW STRATUS MIXING OUT AS CONVECTION
INITIALIZES IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST SITES RETURN TO VFR SUNDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS MAY KEEP CIGS LOW NEAR KRKD.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME NW WINDS GUSTING 10
TO 15 KTS. CAN'T RULE OUT A VCSH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
VRB OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AS SHRA
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WED EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ONSET AND DURATION.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND 4-6FT SEAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
4 TO 5 FT WAVES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY ON THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS OFF OF MAINE. THE
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KNOCK THESE DOWN BY THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
LULL AND SHIFTING WINDS SOUTHERLY. LOW PRESSURE THEN ADVANCES
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK. THIS LOW
COULD RESIDE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, PROLONGING ONSHORE FLOW
AND BUILDING SEAS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/PALMER/CORNWELL
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