857
FXUS61 KGYX 101029
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOADED IN THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE
DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS LOCAL
BODIES OF WATER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AFTER STEADY LIGHT RAIN EXITS THIS MORNING, SHOWERS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
2. TEMPERATURES RUN A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WORK
WEEK, FEATURING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MON AND TUE
FOLLOWED BY CHANCE OF AREAWIDE RAIN MID TO LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT
IF CLOUDS DO NOT INCREASE MARKEDLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STEADY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST ALOFT. IT
WILL BE MUCH WARMER TODAY AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WE COULD SEE A FEW DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, COASTAL AREAS, AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN KENNEBEC VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEY. MID TO UPPER 60S ARE THEN LIKELY MOST
ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE, WHERE WE COULD SEE
SOME LOWER 70S.
GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER MOISTURE, WE COULD SEE
A BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 200 TO 500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
MEAGER INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT A FEW
STORMS COULD END UP BEING ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT, RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR THE WORK
WEEK. MONDAY CONTINUES TO TREND DRY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES.
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER TUESDAY NIGHT, A FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LOW AND SLOW-MOING ATTENDANT SFC LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VARIOUS MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE
ARE SHOWING VARIOUS AMPLIFICATIONS OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THE MEAN SOLUTION HAS CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN LIGHT RAIN WHICH
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS FAIRLY LARGE
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING ON THE EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM WHERE
FRIDAY COULD END UP EITHER WET OR MOSTLY DRY. THIS INCLUDES THE
WEEKEND TOO. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT TAKE A MIDDLE
OF THE ROAD APPROACH WITH POPS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ONWARD SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...WHILE STEADY RAIN HAS ENDED, IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG
AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. RESTRICTIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
WITH MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR/MVFR BY AROUND 18Z THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AT
10-20 KTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THE MOMENT TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY
SPECIFIC TAF SITE. FOR NOW, WILL UTILIZE PROB30 GROUPS FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW STRATUS MAY KEEP CIGS
LOW NEAR KRKD.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH DAYTIME NW WINDS GUSTING 10
TO 15 KTS. CAN'T RULE OUT A VCSH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS NW GUSTING AROUND 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WED AS SHRA
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WED EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ONSET AND DURATION.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 4-6FT SEAS.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW SCA MON AFTERNOON THROUGH WED WITH
A LOW CHANCE OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS WED EVENING INTO THU.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/EKSTER/HARGROVE
AVIATION...TUBBS
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