000
FXUS61 KGYX 101919
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
319 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR
WESTERN MAINE FOOTHILLS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
MID-30S TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY PUSH OFF THE COAST THIS
EVENING. A COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES TONIGHT, WITH FROST ACROSS THE
NORTH AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN
MAINE.
2. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR FROST POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
3. LOW PRESSURE APPEARS TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST IN THE 2ND HALF OF
THIS WEEK, BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.
ALONG WITH THE FRONT, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH. STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND EVEN SMALL HAIL BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY THIS EVENING.
AFTER A CLOUDY START, DAYTIME HEATING HAS DESTABILIZED MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING BETWEEN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WHEN
CLOUDS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING WAS SHORT, AND THIS HAS LARGELY
LIMITED HOW MUCH CAPE COULD BUILD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AND POTENCY IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED THROUGH EARLY EVENING EVEN AMID A GREAT SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.
ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT BEGINNING FROM THE SEACOAST OF NH THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ME COAST SHOULD ACT AS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT,
ELEVATING CONVECTION ENROUTE TO THE COAST. THINK THIS SHOULD
LIMIT GUST POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL ME AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVE, BEFORE BACKGROUND WINDS SHIFT W LATER THIS EVENING.
INTO THIS EVENING, A LIGHT W/SW BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM DECREASING RAPIDLY IN MOST LOCATIONS IN ADDITION
TO CONTINUING CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. PASSING DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTH AND OFF THE COAST WILL THICKEN THESE CLOUDS, WITH SOME
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. POINTS TOWARDS THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WILL SEE CLEARER SKIES AS WINDS FALL OFF
LATER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
30S AS LONG AS THE CIRRUS DECK REMAINS SE. ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY TONIGHT ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF NH AND FAR WESTERN ME,
BUT COULD NEED EXTENSION A BIT SOUTH SHOULD CLOUDS REMAIN VERY
THIN AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE MORE CONTINUOUS.
CONTINUED TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MONDAY AS COLD
AIR ALOFT AND REMAINING MOISTURE PIVOTS THROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES MON NIGHT AS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FROST.
A LARGER FOOTPRINT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FROST TO FORM EVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS CONCORD AND AUBURN / LEWISTON AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PAVE THE WAY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO RUN EVEN COOLER TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MUCH
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND AREAS OF FROST
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.
THE LOW IS LIKELY TO BRING PROLONGED RAINFALL AS ITS WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING,
THE LOW PIVOTS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A STORM TRACK THAT FAVORS AN EVEN
MORE SOAKING RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.
HOWEVER, THE KICKER IS THAT THIS SYSTEM PROBABLY WON'T BE VERY
EFFICIENT AT PRODUCING RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS ARE QUITE LOW (AROUND 1
INCH) FOR AN EVENT LIKE THIS IN THE LATE SPRING. SO WHILE THE STORM
TRACK ITSELF ALLOWS FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO SEE PROLONGED, HEAVIER
RAINFALL, THERE SIMPLY JUST ISN'T ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
PRODUCE A MORE IMPACTFUL RAINFALL. THIS DOES MAKE THIS STORM IDEAL
TO SLOWLY RESTORE GROUNDWATER LEVELS AND IMPROVE THE SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS STILL BEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TS PASSES THROUGH
COASTAL ME/NH TERMINALS THROUGH 23Z. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MOST
COMMON WITH DISCRETE SINGLE CELLS WITH SUSTAINED REFLECTIVITY
CORES. THE LOW FREEZING LEVEL ALLOWS THESE TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING
FAIRLY QUICKLY. BEST CHANCE FOR TS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WILL BE
PWM TO MHT/PSM.
A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT, ALREADY THROUGH
LEB/HIE, THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY BR/FG MAY ADVECT
ONSHORE FOR IWI/RKD THROUGH MID EVENING BEFORE SUPPRESSING BACK
TO THE COAST LATE. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: CU FIELD RETURNS, BUT EXPECT VFR. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHRA
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO INTERIOR TERMINALS. W GUSTS
INCREASE 15 TO 20 KTS.
TUESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY: AM VFR, MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS
OFFSHORE. DID OPT TO EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH MUCH OF MON AS SWELL
BUILDS DUE TO PASSING OFFSHORE DISTURBANCE TONIGHT AND INTO MON.
THIS COULD KEEP 4 TO 6 FT WAVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND 2-4FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
MAY REACH SCA-LEVELS BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS
DIMINISH AND FLIP TO LIGHT NORTHERLIES BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO REMAIN AT 2-4FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ012-013-033.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ003>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/PALMER
AVIATION...CORNWELL/PALMER
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