931
FXUS61 KGYX 111014
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CANCELLED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ME
FOOTHILLS AS TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY 40 DEGREES OR WARMER.
THE ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL NH ZONES WHERE SOME
READINGS ARE INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CLOUDS AND FOG DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE
WEST NORTHWEST, FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
2. LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES NEW ENGLAND IN THE 2ND HALF OF THIS
WEEK, BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN
AND SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME STEADIER OUT OF WEST OR WEST
NORTHWEST, WHICH SHOULD PUSH OUT MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT
BUT WILL LET THE FROST ADVISORY CONTINUE FOR NOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR FOOTHILLS.
OTHER THAN A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, IT WILL
MAINLY BE DRY AND COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NORTH, TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING THEN LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FAVORABLE NIGHT
FOR FROST, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN FARTHER SOUTH. THUS, ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S NORTH, TO THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH.
DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES ON TUESDAY BUT IT WILL BE EVEN A
TOUCHE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH, TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S SOUTH. WIDESPREAD FROST IS THEN ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR MIDWEEK AS
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF WED THROUGH FRI.
ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LOW AND SLOW-MOING ATTENDANT SFC LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VARIOUS MEMBERS OF GUIDANCE
ARE SHOWING VARIOUS DEGREES OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THE MEAN SOLUTION
HAS CONDITIONS DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN
LIGHT RAIN WHICH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. IN FACT, MOIST
INFLOW AND FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND PERHAPS ISOLD THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BASICALLY STALLS NEARBY ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NBM IS
TOO WARM IT SEEMS. ECMWF TWO METER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S
SEEMS MORE REASONABLE.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRIER FOR THE MOMENT BUT WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY: AM VFR, MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD
THUNDER. AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST.
MARINE
WINDS SHIFT OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. SCA CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY AS SWELL BUILDS DUE TO PASSING OFFSHORE DISTURBANCE. THIS
COULD KEEP 4 TO 6 FT WAVES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY RISE TO
SCA LEVELS LATER WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS. WINDS DIMINISH
AND FLIP TO LIGHT NORTHERLIES BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO REMAIN AT 2-5 FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ003>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/EKSTER/HARGROVE
AVIATION...TUBBS
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