020
FXUS61 KGYX 120622
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
222 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AFTER A COLD START, TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
2. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY RESULTING IN BENEFICIAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SKIES WILL START OFF
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CU DEVELOPING WITH SURFACE HEATING THROUGH
LATE MORNING. THE NW GRADIENT FROM THE INCOMING HIGH AND MIXING
TO AROUND 800 MB WILL ALLOW FOR NW WINDS TO INCREASE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH. THESE NW
WINDS WILL ALSO INHIBIT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEA BREEZE ALLOWING
COASTAL AREAS TO BE THE WARM SPOT WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TAPER TO THE NORTH WITH AREAS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER HAVING HIGHS RESTRICTED TO THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO RELAX. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM SUNSET UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL START TO SPREAD SOME
CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING AND LOWERING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE CLOUDS
MAY PUT A HALT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH MAY LIMIT THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR FROST. THE GOING FORECAST BRINGS LOWS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND NEAR FREEZING
INTO THE FOOTHILLS. TRENDS IN THE ADVANCING CLOUD COVER WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE TO SEE WHERE
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY, AND A WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND WIDESPREAD, WITH LIGHT AND STEADY
RAIN LOOKING TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY, BUT DENSE CLOUDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
FAIRLY SOCKED IN AND CHILLY THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN PICKS UP IN
INTENSITY THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH
WITH A MORE INTENSE SLUG OF RAINFALL. SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE
STEADY RAIN AND MOIST ADIABATIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INHIBIT THE
RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM BECOMING THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE IT WILL BE A
SOGGY FEW DAYS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE NOT FAVORED, AS PWATS ARE FAIRLY DRY FOR A STORM
LIKE THIS IN THE SPRING. SHOWERY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS WELL, WITH SOME WRAPAROUND RAIN POSSIBLE AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES EASTWARD.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TODAY. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE OFF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING. CLOUDS INCREASE
WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY WHILE CIGS REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY: AM VFR, MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOWERING CIGS
AND RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: MVFR DUE TO LOW CIGS, SHOWERS, AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER. AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN.
SATURDAY: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN CRESTS
SOUTH OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FORM THE WEST WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST
WINDS WEDNESDAY WITH THESE WINDS BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS INTO
THURSDAY. AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OVERHEAD AND THEN EXITS EAST
FRIDAY WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH,
WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO REMAIN AT 3-5 FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ012-013-
018>020-033.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
008>011-015.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-005-
007.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
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