297
FXUS61 KGYX 131213
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
813 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WARM. 12Z GYX RADIOSONDE NOTED A LOT OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS YET, BUT THINK CURRENT POP FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON PROGRESSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN TODAY FOLLOWED BY MORE
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
2. A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.
3. A WARMING TREND FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT SPECIFICS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW THAT SLOWLY
CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR ASCENT WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING CLOUDS AND NW TO SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT RAIN THAT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. INITIAL RAINFALL WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY LOW LEVELS
SO AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN EXPERIENCING A BREAK IN RAINFALL
BEHIND THIS BAND LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE JUST LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE.
THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIST WELL OFFSHORE WITH
SOME OF THIS MOISTURE BEING DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
THURSDAY. PWATS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1 INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BEST DYNAMICS SPREAD
OVERHEAD. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE SHALLOW LIMITING THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WHILE BOUTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL SEEM
LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY, RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NW TO SE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY REMAIN ON TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO SEE
1-2 INCHES, WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME AREAS THAT SEE LESS
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE BOUTS OF MODERATE RAIN SET UP. LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL MAINE AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HEIGHT
RISES QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT, WHICH SHOULD SET US UP FOR A
VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER
NEW ENGLAND, PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON FACE VALUE, A MUCH
ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TO WARM AND DRY IS IN THE CARDS.
ON SATURDAY, AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH
OVER HUDSON BAY, IT WILL DRAG A WEAK SHORTWAVE THROUGH OUR AREA
ALOFT. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO SPARK SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. POPS SPIKE TO 50% NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT
ARE LESS THAN 20% FROM AUGUSTA TO LEBANON AND POINTS SOUTH.
SUNDAY IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO BE A FULLY DRY DAY AS SUBSIDENCE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC-LEVEL HEIGHT
RISES IN GENERAL. THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WINDOW. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING, THERE MAY BE SOME T-STORMS THAT FIRE AS MAY GET QUITE WARM
AND JUICY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
SATURDAY IS LOOKING TO BE A MILD DAY WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. IN FACT, WSW SURFACE WINDS WITH ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD SUPPRESS
SEABREEZES AND COOLER ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE COASTLINE,
ALLOWING THESE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES TO BE WIDESPREAD. ON SUNDAY THE
FLOW BECOMES A BIT "COOLER" OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, SO WE MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW DEGREES BUT COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF 70S IN
S NH. THEN AFTER, MODELS SHOW EASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY ALONG/NORTH OF
A LIFTING WARM FRONT, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. MOST LIKELY THE WARM SECTOR STAYS DOWN
IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY TUESDAY MOST GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THE WARM FRONT FULLY PUSHES NORTH OF THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
BEEN RATHER INSISTENT ON "SUMMER-LIKE" TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY
TUESDAY, SO STAY TUNED TO SEE IF THIS HOLDS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW AND LOWER
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEB AND PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LIGHT RAIN. CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO TONIGHT WITH IFR
CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT 5-15 KTS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY AS RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD/STEADY. MODERATE RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAY BRING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY THRU THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY: IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASING S WINDS WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND
WILL SLOWLY TRACK NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL GUST 20-25 KTS DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET THAT REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT
NORTHERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND MAY ALLOW SOUTHWEST WINDS TO FRESHEN LATE SAT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE LESS LIKELY TO FULLY MIX DOWN, BUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
KT ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CORNWELL/SCHROETER/TUBBS
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