491
FXUS61 KGYX 142135
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
535 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. IF FLOODING OCCURS IT IS MOST LIKELY TO BE URBAN OR
POOR DRAINAGE TYPE FLOODING, BUT SOME OF THE FLASHIER RIVERS MAY
RISE TO ACTION STAGE OR APPROACH MINOR FLOOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CONTINUES, HEAVY AT TIMES, OVERNIGHT. SOME MINOR
FLOODING OF FLASHY RIVERS AND URBAN AREAS/SMALL STREAMS IS
POSSIBLE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACH 3 INCHES.
2. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND,
AND MAY BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENINGS OF BOTH DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS BEGINNING MOVE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AT
THIS HOUR. AS IT DOES SO A STRENGTHENING WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED OVER NH AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND PIVOT THRU THE
NIGHT INTO A MORE EAST/WEST ORIENTATION. WHERE THE PIVOT
ULTIMATELY OCCURS WILL DETERMINE WHO GETS THE HIGHEST TOTALS AND
WHERE FLOODING MAY POTENTIALLY BE AN ISSUE. THERE HAS BEEN A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN QPF ACROSS MODEL GUIDANCE INTO THIS MORNING.
I HAVE NOTED THE 14.00Z HREF TO 14.12Z HREF MEAN AND MAX 24
HOUR QPF BOTH INCREASING SLIGHTLY. MEAN QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOW 2 TO
2.5 INCHES ACROSS BOTH THE UPPER VALLEY OF NH AND PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. MAX AMOUNTS ARE APPROACHING 5 INCHES. LOCAL
RESEARCH HAS SUGGESTED THAT WHILE LOCATION TENDS TO BE HARDER TO
PINPOINT, THE MAX QPF AMOUNTS TEND TO OCCUR MORE OFTEN THAN NOT
SOMEWHERE IN THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. WHILE RAINFALL RATES HAVE
NOT BEEN EXTREME SO FAR TODAY, ANOTHER 6 TO 8 HOURS OF 0.25"/HR
WILL RESULT IN 3 TO 4 INCH TOTALS GIVEN WHAT HAS ALREADY
FALLEN. GENERALLY SPEAKING WE NEED THOSE TOTALS IN 6 HOURS IN
ORDER TO REALLY BE WORRIED ABOUT FLASH FLOODING. CONSIDERING THE
FORECAST I ANTICIPATE THAT THE FLASHIER RIVERS MAY APPROACH
MINOR FLOODING, MORE LIKELY RISING TO ACTION STAGE, THOUGH WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE UPPER PEMI BASIN. OTHERWISE SOME SMALL
STREAM AND URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN
OCCURS. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME AREAL FLOOD WARNING MAY BE
NECESSARY, POTENTIALLY TRANSITIONING TO ADVISORIES NEAR THE
MORNING COMMUTE TIME TO HIGHLIGHT ANY LINGERING WATER ON
ROADWAYS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
BY MIDDAY FRI SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND SETTLES
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY SETTING UP MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY PUSHING INTO THE LOW 80S SUNDAY.
WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD WITH INLAND LAKES AROUND 50
DEGREES AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THE COMBINATION OF
WARM AND FAIR WEATHER MAY LURE PEOPLE TO THE WATER AND WILL
LIKELY NEED COLD WATER SAFETY MESSAGING.
A BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGS A BIT OF A COOL DOWN MONDAY WITH SEA
BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE BELOW
70F ON MONDAY, WITH LOWER 70S MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-95.
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS CALM AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS RUNNING AT LEAST 10F WARMER ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90F CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, WITH
BELOW 70F HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING CONFINED TO THE MIDCOAST. THE
DAYTIME HEATING AND EXTRA MOISTURE LOOKS TO COLLIDE WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 500-
1000J OF CAPE AND AROUND 30KTS OF WIND SHEAR. WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, STORMS MAY CONTAIN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER HOTTER DAY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAYBE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ARRIVING INTO ANOTHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
AT LEAST 1000J OF CAPE AND 35KTS OF SHEAR. SO BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S STORMS COULD
POSE MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT THAN TUESDAYS. WITH BOTH DAYS, A SMALL
MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST IS LIKELY TO KEEP STRONGER STORMS
CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES START COOLING OFF FURTHER FOR
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST TODAY WITH VARIED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. TO THE EAST MAINLY VFR WITH SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS EXIST, WHILE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR OR LOWER
IS OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF NH. GENERALLY SPEAKING CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND RAINFALL HELPS TO
LOWER CIGS. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY PESSIMISTIC AND MUCH OF IT WAS
ALREADY TOO AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING CONDITIONS AT HOUR ZERO. SO I
HAVE DELAYED THE DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND DO NOT
BRING HIE TO IFR AT ALL. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EVENTUALLY STALL AND DRIFT BACK SOUTH WHILE SCATTERING OUT TO
MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS BY MORNING. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THE SECOND
HALF OF FRI UNTIL WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ONSHORE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL 25 KT GUSTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT THIS IS MAINLY FOR BUILDING
SEAS, WHICH WILL CLIMB ABOVE 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND MAY LINGER
THERE THRU SAT MORNING. AREAS OF FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO FRI AS WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
WINDS PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH 4-6FT SEAS EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2-3FT EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
AROUND 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NH SO FAR TODAY AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO 3
OR 4 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WHILE THIS AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS, IT
MAY LEAD TO URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. ALSO DEPENDING ON
WHERE THE RAINFALL MAXIMUM SETS UP, SOME OF THE FLASHIER RIVERS
MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/PALMER
AVIATION...LEGRO/PALMER
MARINE...LEGRO/PALMER
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