972
FXUS61 KGYX 151822
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
222 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, BUT I HAVE ISSUED HEADLINES
FOR COLD WATER HAZARDS GIVEN THE WARM AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH LOWER 90S POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CAPE AS WELL, INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING AND THEN THE PATTERN TURNS
WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND. AFTER A LONG BELOW NORMAL STRETCH OF
WEATHER, OUTDOOR RECREATION WILL BE IN HIGH DEMAND AND AREA
INLAND AND OCEAN WATERS REMAIN VERY COLD.
2. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND,
AND MAY BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE EVENINGS OF BOTH DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RAIN AND SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE. I EXPECT THAT EVEN CLOUD COVER WILL LARGELY
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL LEAD TO PATCHY RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPING. FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS, SO THAT IS WHERE I HAVE INCLUDED IT FOR NOW. ANY FOG
WILL LIFT QUICKLY WITH SUNRISE SAT MORNING. ALSO WORTH NOTING
THAT THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND
11.2 FT AT PORTLAND. LITTLE TO NO SURGE IS EXPECTED, BUT WATER
LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.
THEN ATTENTION WILL TURN TO WARMING TEMPS. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
EXPECTED BOTH SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WELL ABOVE
NORMAL STRETCH IN A WHILE, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOTS OF
PEOPLE WILL BE ANXIOUS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THAT WEATHER. THE
CONCERN IS THAT INLAND AND OCEAN WATERS REMAIN VERY COLD. FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS I HAVE ISSUED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO
HIGHLIGHT THOSE WATERS TEMPS IN THE 40S STILL. INLAND, RIVERS
AND LAKES ARE COLD, PLUS RECENT RAINFALL HAS THE RIVERS RUNNING
SWIFT. SO I HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR INLAND COLD WATERS. THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SAT, BUT GENERALLY EXPECTING
THOSE TO BE WEAKENING AS THEY ARRIVE IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND,
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL HEATING TREND INTO MONDAY. A SEA BREEZE IS
LIKELY ON MONDAY, AS THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY
ONSHORE FLOW TO PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP
COASTAL AREAS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MAINE IN THE LOWER 70S ON MONDAY,
WITH UPPER 70S AND 80S MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF I-93.
MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS CALM AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION, WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS RUNNING AT LEAST 10F WARMER ON TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER 90S CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE,
WITH BELOW 80F HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING CONFINED TO THE MIDCOAST.
THE DAYTIME HEATING AND EXTRA MOISTURE LOOKS TO COLLIDE WITH A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH 600-
1200J OF CAPE AND AROUND 30-35KTS OF WIND SHEAR. WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, STORMS MAY CONTAIN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAYBE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER FROM TUESDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ARRIVING INTO ANOTHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH
AT LEAST 1000J OF CAPE AND 35KTS OF SHEAR. SO BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S STORMS COULD
POSE MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT THAN TUESDAYS, BUT BOTH DAYS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE MINOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH
BOTH DAYS, A SMALL MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST IS LIKELY TO KEEP
STRONGER STORMS CONFINED TO THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES START COOLING
OFF FURTHER FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RAIN IS GRADUALLY COMING TO AN END AND COASTAL STORM IS PULLING
AWAY SO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE DEGREE OF CLEARING AND
WHETHER RADIATION FOG DEVELOPS. AT THE VERY LEAST I ANTICIPATE
THAT THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE SOME FOG, SO I HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TAFS AT LEB AND HIE. ELSEWHERE THE
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
STILL DEALING WITH LARGE SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET GENERALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THRU THE
WEEKEND. I HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU SAT
NIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WARMING AIR TEMPS AND VERY COLD
OCEAN TEMPS. INCREASING RECREATION WILL MAKE THE COLD WATER A
HAZARD. MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WATERS NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS OF 2-4FT EXPECTED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/PALMER
AVIATION...LEGRO/PALMER
MARINE...LEGRO/PALMER
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