190
FXUS61 KGYX 311028
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS ARE HOVERING AROUND 5 FEET
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE MORNING.
THE FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 7 AM AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO QUICKLY REBOUND AFTER A VERY COLD START.
LASTLY, FRESHENED UP THE AVIATION DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE 12Z
TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COOL AIRMASS BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR FROST ACROSS THE NORTH
AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING.
2. A SHORTWAVE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. A FEW MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
3. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING, IT SHOULD
BECOME QUITE COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
FROST ACROSS THE NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR. THE FROST
ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TRAVELS DOWN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL
FLOW ALOFT WITH RIBBONS OF VORTICITY FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S AND DEWPOINTS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S, BUT COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
MUCAPE VALUES IN THE 300 TO 600 J/KG RANGE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
BE FAIRLY WEAK IN GENERAL BUT COULD APPROACH THE 35 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ALL THAT SAID, SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED BUT THE STRONGEST CORES COULD LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
MOST OF THE THUNDER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE SETTING OF
THE SUN BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, LINGERING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN BUT WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE
THAN TODAY. THE RAP SUGGESTS THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT AGAIN, SO SOME THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TODAY, MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING FINALLY RELEASES ITS GRIP ON NEW ENGLAND
BY TUESDAY. THIS HAPPENS AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN BREAKS DOWN, AND
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER CANADA IS SQUASHED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. FOR LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. FLOW
WILL BE LIGHT SO SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
TUESDAY ONWARD. MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 60S-70S,
BUT THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD TOP 80 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES WARMER ALOFT.
AS INDICATED, THIS OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A RAIN-FREE PERIOD. THE ONLY
DAYS TO KEEP AN EYE ON WOULD BE TUESDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND. ON
TUESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE WEEKEND'S COLD POOL WILL STILL BE IN
THE VICINITY, WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWERS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE REGION, BUT DETAIL/TIMING REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN
WITH THIS BEING CLOSE TO A WEEK OUT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL LIFT AROUND 12Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES ARE THEN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
MVFR CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TURNING SOUTH AND LIGHT BY THE
EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY: VFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORED WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO CASCO
BAY AS SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 5FT MOST OF THE MORNING. SEAS
GRADUALLY FALL BELOW 5FT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON
TODAY, THEN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS INTO MONDAY WHILE WINDS AND SEAS
GENERALLY STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. FAIR WEATHER TUE-FRI WITH
WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012-
033.
NH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NHZ001>004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ154.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE
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