784
FXUS61 KGYX 011014
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS MORNING UPDATE. JUST
FRESHENED UP THE NEAR TERM AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OFFSHORE. ALSO, FRESHENED
UP THE AVIATION DISCUSSION TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION, LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
2. A WARMING TREND WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO END
THE WEEK
3. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
NO DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE THIS MORNING WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSE ON IT'S HEELS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS ROTATING NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM AROUND 07Z TO 15Z OR SO THIS
MORNING. THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL
BE ACROSS THE KENNEBEC RIVER VALLEY AND MIDCOAST AREAS WHICH
WILL BE FURTHER EAST THAN THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING. WHILE
THUNDER WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD, A FEW RUMBLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY FLOATING AROUND.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT IN THE MORNING, BUT WE
COULD HAVE A FEW MORE DIURNAL SHOWERS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST INSTABILITY AGAIN, SO A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE WILL ALSO BE
LIMITED.
THIS MORNING, LOWS WILL MAINLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH,
TO THE LOW/MID 40S SOUTH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL THEN BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING FINALLY RELEASES ITS GRIP ON NEW ENGLAND
BY TUESDAY. THIS HAPPENS AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN BREAKS DOWN, AND
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE OVER CANADA IS SQUASHED SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. FOR LOCAL SENSIBLE WEATHER, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION. FLOW
WILL BE LIGHT SO SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
TUESDAY ONWARD. MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 70S, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE 80S BY THURSDAY-
FRIDAY AS IT BECOMES WARMER ALOFT. IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE A PLEASANT
AIRMASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S, BUT HUMIDITY MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE NOTICEABLE BY NEXT WEEKEND DEPENDING ON THE SHORTWAVE'S
TIMING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT NEITHER DAY LOOKS TO BE WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION
CHANCES. ON TUESDAY, THE REMNANTS OF THE WEEKEND'S COLD POOL
WILL STILL BE IN THE VICINITY. HI-RES GUIDANCE COMING INTO RANGE
IS SHOWING RATHER STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~9.0 C/KM, PAIRED
WITH FREEZING LEVELS STILL HOVERING AROUND 800 MB. THIS LOOKS
TO BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE, WHICH MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOG AND LOW CEILINGS WILL LIFT AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING BRINGING
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED SHOWERS
REMAIN IN THE AREA. VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT, BUT SOME VALLEY FOG
IS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: VFR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL PLAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE IS FAVORED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
THIS MORNING. A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WINDS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE
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