143
FXUS61 KGYX 040649
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
249 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW
LIMITING EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACTS.
2. REMAINING VERY WARM ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
3. DRIER WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY AND CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW
ENGLAND WILL ALLOW FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL PUSH +15C BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW MIXING UP TO 800 MB WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS INTO THE 80S WITH INTERIOR WARM SPOTS
CLIMBING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG
WITH DEEP MIXING WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S SO
APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE SAME AS AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND WILL PROMOTE WSW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THAT MAY KEEP THE
SEA BREEZE FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND WITH RELIEF MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE BEACHES. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
COAST ARE FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE 80S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
GETS GOING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING
INTO THE 50S FOR LOWS.
FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY TEMPERATURE WISE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. STEADY WSW WINDS WILL AGAIN BATTLE AGAINST THE SEA
BREEZE WITH COASTAL AREAS PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH
INTERIOR WARM SPOTS MAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW 90S. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DRIER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, SO ANY SHOWERS THAT
MOVE INTO THE AREA SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN NH AND THE
WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AND IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY IN THE 80S, BUT THERE MAY BE AN AREA THAT STAYS IN THE
70S STRETCHING FROM THE MIDCOAST TO NEAR AUGUSTA WITH WINDS MORE
ONSHORE. NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING WITH A FEW STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT SOUTHERN AREAS WILL
SEE THESE CHANCES INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
BETTER LIFT ARRIVES AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY BUILDS. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE CAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH,
ALTHOUGH THE MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY BE MORE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS.
SHOWERS REMAIN LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND SENDS THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE COULD
BE A COUPLE OF STORMS ON SUNDAY, BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE A
PRETTY BRIEF WINDOW. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER IN THE
DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD.
ONE MORE THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM: NOT EXPECTING ANY HYDRO ISSUES,
BUT PWATS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.50", WHICH IS ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO THERE COULD BE SOME HEFTY
RAIN RATES WITHIN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
DRIER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR MONDAY BEHIND SUNDAY'S FRONT WITH
MOST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGING HIGHS INTO THE 70S. AFTER THAT,
ENSEMBLES FAVOR UPPER-LEVEL RIDING BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST,
OFFERING A WARMING TREND TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
WHILE ALSO KEEPING THINGS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...VFR. DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WILL BECOME STEADY OUT OF THE WSW TODAY. WINDS TURN MORE
ONSHORE FOR COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
SLACKENING WINDS TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT: HIE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHER TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
MVFR CEILINGS. RKD COULD SEE IFR STRATUS OR MARINE FOG.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END AS THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, BUT PATCHY FOG COULD BRING ADDITIONAL IFR
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND LIGHT OFFSHORE
WINDS AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MARINE FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
STORMS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY, NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS COULD REACH SCA LEVELS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY STAY BELOW SCA
LEVELS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/COMBS
AVIATION...TUBBS/COMBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page