652
FXUS61 KGYX 050646
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
246 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH TODAY.
2. A SLOW MOVING FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERN AREAS LIKELY SEE
CONTINUED WARMTH SATURDAY.
3. A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES FOR MONDAY. A WARMING
TREND FOLLOWS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH TODAY
WHILE A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA SLIPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WELL INTO THE 80S AND PUSHING TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THAN YESTERDAY WHILE
THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODS OF SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S WHICH WILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPERATURES THE SAME
AS AMBIENT TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT SINKING INTO NORTHERN MAINE
COMBINED WITH SOME INSTABILITY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO SOMERSET COUNTY. A SEA
BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPS BY EARLY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME RELIEF
TO COASTAL AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER A STRETCH OF PLEASANT WEATHER, IT WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR A
FEW DAYS (FITTINGLY, FALLING ON THE WEEKEND). A COMPACT BUT
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION SATURDAY-
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND 1000 MB AND
WILL MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE FLOW SLOWS ON SUNDAY, KEEPING THE PRESSURE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY FOR A SECOND DAY.
THERE WILL BE CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH DAYS. ON SATURDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A
PRECIPITATION SHIELD AFFECTING NORTHERN NH AND MAINE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURFACE LOW. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IF DESTABILIZATION TO THE
SOUTH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE BUT AN AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A
WESTERLY LOW-LVL JET COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS OR
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT. SPC HAS PLACED US IN A DAY 2 MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NH. OVERALL INSTABILITY LOOKS
QUITE MARGINAL OWING TO POOR LAPSE RATES, AND SHEAR REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE BUT MAY BE ENHANCED FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE SURFACE
LOW. BY SUNDAY, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE EXITING THE REGION, AND
WILL DRAG DOWN A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT FROM CANADA ON ITS
BACKSIDE. LAPSE RATES SHOULD INCREASE AND REPRESENT MORE OF A
COLD CORE THERMAL PROFILE, SO DESPITE WONKY SHEAR PROFILES
BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH FUEL FOR ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
FINALLY A WORD ON TEMPERATURES. AT A MINIMUM WE SHOULD SEE A
DOWNWARD TREND DOWN FROM THE PRIOR WEEK OWING TO INCREASED CLOUD AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. A TRICKY FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH ONE OR
MORE FRONTS OVERHEAD. SOME GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT DEVELOPING AS FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS COULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE 60S ESPECIALLY ACROSS
MAINE, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHO CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DAY IN
THE WARM SECTOR (BEST ODDS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH). HIGHS ACROSS
CENTRAL NH AND INTERIOR FAR WESTERN MAINE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
80S WITH LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. SUNDAY SHOULD BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES REGIONWIDE AS FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY, WITH HIGHS
LARGELY IN THE 60S-70S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A COOLER A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA AND AND CREST OVER THE AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 70S WHILE NE WINDS TURNING EASTERLY WILL KEEP
COASTAL SW MAINE AND SE NH COOLER. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SINKS SOUTH RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING
FOR A WARMING TREND AND TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR WITH NO SIG WX. COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL SEE ONSHORE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TODAY, WITH INLAND
TERMINALS MAINLY SW...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT. A
FEW SHRA POSSIBLE TOWARDS CENTRAL ME FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
DISSIPATING IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO THE COAST FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, BRINGING RESTRICTIONS AT
TIMES.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR
TO IFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR PREVAILS, BUT SOME NIGHTTIME
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 KTS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
WITH N TO NE WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND SETTLES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/BARKER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...TUBBS
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