871
FXUS61 KGYX 051847
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE A
MORE PRONOUNCED WARM UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS SATURDAY
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETREATING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND FAR WESTERN MAINE, WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.
2. A SLOW MOVING FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS AND A RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS.
3. AFTER A BRIEF AND RELATIVE COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES REBOUND AGAIN BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING TOWARDS CENTRAL MAINE, IT REMAINS DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS GO CALM, WITH TEMPERATURES RETREATING TO THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL HELP CHANNEL MOISTURE INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ATOP THE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING BEFORE PUSHING EAST.
HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS EXIT EAST OR START TO SEE SUNNY BREAKS
WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND
THEIR INTENSITY. CAM ENSEMBLES IN THE FORM OF THE HREF AND REFS
REFLECT THIS WITH A WIDE IQR SPREAD OF 500-700 J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS DOES PROVIDE SOME CLARITY
HOWEVER THAT THE CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS IS FOCUSED WEST OF
ROUGHLY A PORTLAND TO RANGELEY LINE. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND
SHOULD BE OBSERVED EAST OF THIS LINE.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FORCED BY A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ENTERING NEW ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE SHEAR THROUGH THE COLUMN
TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURE, WITH A PUSH OF WATER VAPOR
TRANSPORT ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY REMAINS
THE MORE UNCERTAIN ASPECT AT THIS TIME, BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
SHOULD BE FOCUSED ON NH AND FAR WESTERN ME. GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITHIN STRONGER STORMS, BUT SMALL
HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE WHEN IN DISCRETE SINGLE CELL
MODES. A TRANSITION TO LINEAR SEGMENTS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
AFTERNOON GOES ON, BOOSTING WIND RISK.
COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES IN THE EVENING, WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT DIMINISHING. SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE A
RIDGE PUMPS INTO THE NORTHEAST US AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS
BRINGS WITH IT A WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY TUESDAY, AND MID 80S TO LOW 90S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE LOOK POISED TO SET UP TO THE NORTHWEST OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH QUEBEC AND ONTARIO. THIS BRINGS THE WARMEST ANOMALIES
INTO NORTHERN AREAS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS NEXT WEEK. IT
ALSO PRESENTS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY LATE
WEEK, BUT BASED ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE IT LOOKS MORE
LIKELY THAT THIS WOULD BE DEFLECTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
SHOULD THIS PATTERN PROGRESSION COME TO FRUITION, AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SUMMERTIME HEAT WOULD LIKELY LAST INTO AT LEAST LATE
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE COLD FRONT ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. THIS BRINGS MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. OVERALL SINCE YESTERDAY, THE FRONT HAS TRENDED TO LOOK
LESS ROBUST, AND WITH LESS PRECIP OVERALL. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE
STILL LIKELY, BUT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DOESN'T LOOK TO DIG AS
DEEP AS MODELS WERE SUGGESTING YESTERDAY, RESULTING IN MORE
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. THE FRONT THEN CLEARS TO THE SOUTH BY
LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
ALONG WITH THE LESS ROBUST FRONT, THE COOL AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS AS EARLIER MODELING
SUGGESTED. THIS STILL RESULTS IN A RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH, BUT
TEMPS STILL WARM INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO NEAR 80
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. AND FROM THESE READINGS, TEMPS
ONLY WARM GOING INTO MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR. THERE WILL BE SOME SHRA DEVELOPING
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TOWARDS WVL/AUG, BUT THESE PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VALLEY FOG IN THIS
REGION LATER TONIGHT, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE AUG
TAF. VFR SAT MORNING, WITH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING. SOME
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AS SHRA
INCREASES IN COVERAGE. TS BECOMES MORE LIKELY AFTER 18Z, FOR
MUCH OF NH AND FAR WESTERN ME THROUGH 00Z.
SUNDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR PREVAILS, BUT SOME NIGHTTIME
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE
SOUTHERN ME AND NH COAST, WITH GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL
POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER DECREASES UP THE ME
COAST.
SOME MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SUNDAY, AND ARE THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY, AND SETTLES TO
THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH MAINLY FAIR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/CORNWELL
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