101
FXUS61 KGYX 060626
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SW NEW
HAMPSHIRE WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MAINE TODAY.
2. A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER AND A RELATIVELY COOLER AIRMASS.
3. HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH
A WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH
SHARPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHEAST FROM
THE LOW ACROSS MAINE PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THIS FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S AND
LOW 70S. THIS WILL ALSO LIMIT INSTABILITY EAST OF CUMBERLAND
AND OXFORD COUNTY.
THE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK THROUGH THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO
FAR WESTERN MAINE. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS HOW MUCH CLEARING
OCCURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH PROVIDES
FORCING FOR STORMS. THE HREF MEAN SB CAPE TOPS OUT AROUND 1000
J/KG ACROSS SW NH WHILE THE MAX TOPS OUT AROUND 2000 J/KG WITH
THIS BETTER INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN MAINE. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL AID IN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP TO
40 KTS THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. OVERALL, NO NOTABLE
TRENDS HAVE EMERGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SEVERE THREAT.
CAMS SUGGEST SEMI DISCRETE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NH BY
AROUND 4 PM TRANSITIONING TO SMALL LINE SEGMENTS THAT WILL PUSH
INTO FAR WESTERN MAINE THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WHILE ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE
OF HAIL AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 6.5C/KM. HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO TONIGHT THAT MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE AFTER THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING WHILE THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CENTERED ON THE
MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER, THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS DRAGS A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY BEHIND IT AND USHERING IN
COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
(60S NORTH, 70S SOUTH), THEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
STILL KEEPING AN EYE ON THE THUNDER POTENTIAL, BUT SINCE YESTERDAY
HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF IN COVERAGE, WITH MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATING JUST SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN OVER THE REGION. DO HAVE A POCKET
OF COLDER AIR ALOFT, BUT DOES NOT LOOK NEARLY AS ROBUST AS LAST
SUNDAY'S COLD POOL ALOFT EVENT. FOR EXAMPLE, FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE
CLOSER TO 700 MB THAN THE 850 MB WE SAW A WEEK PRIOR. LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL BE HOVERING AROUND 6.0 TO 7.5 C/KM, WHICH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE. HOWEVER,
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE RATHER WONKY ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE, JUST EXPECTING SCATTERED
GARDEN VARIETY DOWNPOURS/THUNDER, WITH THE GREATEST SPATIAL COVERAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HEIGHT RISES BEGIN ON MONDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING
OVER THE REGION. STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW MAY LIMIT ANY SEA BREEZE
POTENTIAL WITH TEMPERATURES RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR A WARMING TREND WITH
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
90S.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT PWM, RKD, AUG, AND HIE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA. SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED TS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. LOWERING CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN BR
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT PWM, AUG, RKD, AND HIE.
ELSEWHERE WILL BE A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR.
SUNDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR PREVAILS, BUT SOME NIGHTTIME
VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF TRACKING INTO THE WATERS WITH GUSTY WINDS
OR SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE NEAR SHORE. THE THREAT FOR THUNDER
DECREASES NORTH OF CASCO BAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SOUTH TO SW FLOW WILL FRESHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND N SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR QUIET CONDITIONS ON
THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/BARKER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...TUBBS
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