315
FXUS61 KGYX 081823
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
223 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, BRINGING
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD FOR TUESDAY.
2. HUMIDITY INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S COMBINED WITH THE
HUMIDITY WILL POSE A HEAT RISK.
3. SUMMER WARMTH HANGS ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT A COLD
FRONT PASSING OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BREAK THE HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND INTO THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND SEASONABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY
BEGINS TO MODIFY TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH BRINGS
IN WARMER AIR AND HIGHER DEW POINTS BEGIN TO WORK IN OVERNIGHT
AND ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS SET UP, LOWS AREN'T AS COOL TONIGHT,
BUT RADIATIONAL COOLING DOES BRING LOWS INTO THE MID 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS, TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. VALLEY FOG IS ALSO
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THROUGH THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.
TUESDAY BRINGS WARMER TEMPS AND AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY. NBM
TEMPS APPEAR TO BE DISCONNECTED FROM REALITY WITH NBM FORECAST
HIGHS RUNNING +17-19C 850MB TEMPS. SO HIGHS WERE BROUGHT DOWN
BY A FEW DEGREES OVERALL TO KEEP THEM CLOSER TO MODELED 850MB
TEMPS +16C. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTH, TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE
COAST. SIMILAR TO TODAY, A SEA BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPS BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY HUGS THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MAINLAND.
CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN OVERNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT, HELPING TO
KEEP LOWS ON THE WARMER SIDE AND LESSENING THE EXTENT OF THE
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. LOWS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
50S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO LOW 60S THROUGH THE SEACOAST OF NH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEANS SUGGESTING 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE +15-17C
RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO MIX INTO
THE LOW TO MID-80S, BUT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPING UP
DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO BE RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S SO IT
MAY FEEL MORE LIKE THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN SPOTS. A
SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY EVENING
WHICH WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, WITH THURSDAY
LOOKING LIKE OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING AMBIENT TEMPERATURES REACH
INTO THE 90S, BUT IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THIS MAY END UP CONFINED TO
THE MERRIMACK AND CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEYS. DIURNAL CONVECTION
IS POTENTIALLY GOING TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR IN REGARDS TO HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN GET OVER THIS TIME PERIOD WHICH IS CAUSING
UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT DEGREE OF A HEAT RISK WE MAY BE LOOKING AT.
THURSDAY WOULD BE THE DAY TO WATCH FOR ANY POTENTIAL HEAT
ADVISORIES AS IT LOOKS LIKE THAT'S WHEN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
PEAK FOR US, BUT AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY NOT END UP BEING A
WIDESPREAD THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER
LOW TAKES RESIDENCY OVER ONTARIO. THE RESULTING TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS GOING TO TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN ABOUT HOW FAR ALONG
IT IS GOING TO GET (CURRENTLY THEY ARE ALL AROUND THE FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME RANGE). THE REASON THIS BEARS WATCHING IS
BECAUSE THIS IS GOING TO BRING THE RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY AND
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS. THIS SIGNAL IS BEGINNING
TO SHOW UP ON CSU'S MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE, BUT IS ALSO
SPREAD OUT OVER SEVERAL DAYS OWING TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.
REGARDLESS, THE SUMMER WARMTH STICKS AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE RIDGING OVER THE
ATLANTIC KEEPS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH STALLED JUST TO
OUR WEST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS.
HOWEVER, NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT HIE AND LEB, AND IS THEN
POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
MAINE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CLAIR
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