193
FXUS61 KGYX 090633
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AND LARGELY DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2. SUMMER WARMTH CONTINUES, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
3. DAILY CHANCES FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE
REGION RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THRU SUNRISE THAT WILL MEAN A STRENGTHENING
INVERSION AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. I WILL CONTINUE TO
GO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NBM WITH THE HELP OF MOS GUIDANCE.
IT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WITH SIMILAR MIXING TODAY, WE WILL BE
TAPPING MID LEVEL TEMPS AROUND 5C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS
LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND IN LINE WITH WHAT THE NBM IS PUTTING OUT. SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, SO WHILE FAIR WEATHER CU IS
POSSIBLE ANY VERTICAL EXTENT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
MOVING INTO WED MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM, BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY
IS GOING TO MAKE MIXING A LITTLE MORE SHALLOW. THE CONFLICTING
SIGNALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS MORE OR LESS ENDING UP NEAR
HIGH TEMPS TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE NEED TO WATCH THE
REMNANTS OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST
WED. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY MISS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT EVEN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES BRUSHING
SOUTHWESTERN NH WILL INTRODUCE SOME CAPE AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM AIRMASS. ENSEMBLES
SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +16-17C RANGE TO END THE WEEK.
IF WE CAN ACHIEVE STRONG MIXING WITH SURFACE HEATING, THIS WOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 80S, WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT A FEW OF THE WARM
VALLEY LOCATIONS CAN TOUCH 90 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ALSO WORTH NOTING, THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SEQUENCE
OF HIGH HUMIDITY THIS YEAR, AS THE BERMUDA HIGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF FOR A FEW DAYS. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DEW POINTS OF 65-70
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A
HUMID SUMMER FEEL TO THE AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LATE IN THE WEEK THE RESULTING TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST IS
GOING TO TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, BUT GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO ZERO IN
ON SATURDAY AS THE FAVORED DAY FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DEW
POINTS SHARPLY FALLING BEHIND IT AS FLOW TURNS TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND USHERS IN DRIER CANADIAN AIR. THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY
WEAKER FRONT ON SUNDAY, AN EMERGING SIGNAL IN SOME MODEL OUTPUT.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESENT DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
DOWNPOURS/THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY LOOKS SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD EACH DAY, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONCENTRATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH ADDED
FORCING. DESPITE SOME BULLISH SEVERE ODDS ON CIPS/CSU, WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIKELY NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. IN
ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW, SO FORCING/DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ON THE STRONG SIDE
EITHER.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. HOWEVER SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN
PLACE, DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING SOUTH OF THE
REGION. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME VALLEY FOG TO FORM AGAIN THRU
SUNRISE, MAINLY IMPACTING HIE AND LEB. THOUGH IT MAY BE LESS
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT, SOME LOCAL VALLEY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE UNTIL
HIGH PRESSURE CLEARS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LOCAL MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL, BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MARINE
STRATUS/FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT, RETURNING TO VFR BEHIND IT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS. AS RETURN FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE LATE WEEK, INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMING ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/LEGRO
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