938
FXUS61 KGYX 091043 CCA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS. NO CHANGES
OTHERWISE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN AND LARGELY DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
2. SUMMER WARMTH CONTINUES, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.
3. DAILY CHANCES FOR DOWNPOURS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION RETURN FLOW WILL SET
UP WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THRU SUNRISE THAT
WILL MEAN A STRENGTHENING INVERSION AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. I WILL CONTINUE TO GO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN NBM
WITH THE HELP OF MOS GUIDANCE. IT WILL ALSO MEAN THAT WITH
SIMILAR MIXING TODAY, WE WILL BE TAPPING MID LEVEL TEMPS AROUND
5C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND IN LINE WITH WHAT THE NBM
IS PUTTING OUT. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, SO
WHILE FAIR WEATHER CU IS POSSIBLE ANY VERTICAL EXTENT SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
MOVING INTO WED MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM, BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY
IS GOING TO MAKE MIXING A LITTLE MORE SHALLOW. THE CONFLICTING
SIGNALS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO TEMPS MORE OR LESS ENDING UP NEAR
HIGH TEMPS TODAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE NEED TO WATCH THE
REMNANTS OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST
WED. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIKELY MISS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT EVEN MARGINAL LAPSE RATES BRUSHING
SOUTHWESTERN NH WILL INTRODUCE SOME CAPE AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG RIDGE KEEPS ITS GRIP ON THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE BEING PUSHED OFFSHORE AS A TROUGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE QUITE A WARM AIRMASS. ENSEMBLES
SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE +16-17C RANGE TO END THE WEEK.
IF WE CAN ACHIEVE STRONG MIXING WITH SURFACE HEATING, THIS WOULD
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD 80S, WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT A FEW OF THE WARM
VALLEY LOCATIONS CAN TOUCH 90 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. ALSO WORTH NOTING, THIS WILL BE THE FIRST SEQUENCE
OF HIGH HUMIDITY THIS YEAR, AS THE BERMUDA HIGH ESTABLISHES
ITSELF FOR A FEW DAYS. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DEW POINTS OF 65-70
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE DECREASING BY NEXT WEEKEND.
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, THERE WILL DEFINITELY BE A
HUMID SUMMER FEEL TO THE AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LATE IN THE WEEK THE RESULTING TROUGHING OVER THE MIDWEST IS
GOING TO TRY TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TIMING
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS, BUT GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO ZERO IN
ON SATURDAY AS THE FAVORED DAY FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH DEW
POINTS SHARPLY FALLING BEHIND IT AS FLOW TURNS TO NORTHWESTERLY
AND USHERS IN DRIER CANADIAN AIR. THERE MAY BE A SECONDARY
WEAKER FRONT ON SUNDAY, AN EMERGING SIGNAL IN SOME MODEL OUTPUT.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESENT DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR
DOWNPOURS/THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY LOOKS SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD EACH DAY, HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MORE
WIDESPREAD CONCENTRATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT WITH ADDED
FORCING. DESPITE SOME BULLISH SEVERE ODDS ON CIPS/CSU, WEAK
SHEAR WILL LIKELY NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT. IN
ADDITION, THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER DETACHED FROM THE MAIN
SURFACE LOW, SO FORCING/DYNAMICS WILL NOT BE ON THE STRONG SIDE
EITHER.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR TODAY WITH WEST WINDS OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KT, BUT COASTAL SITES MAY SEE A WIND SHIFT
WITH A POSSIBLE SEABREEZE. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, EXCEPT VALLEY
FOG POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB.
OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LOCAL
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR TO IFR (OR LOWER) POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG AND
STRATUS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY PREVAIL, BUT
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR MARINE
STRATUS/FOG AND IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG A COLD FRONT, RETURNING TO VFR BEHIND IT.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL LEAD TO LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL
SEAS. AS RETURN FLOW PERSISTS INTO THE LATE WEEK, INCREASING
MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMING ON THE
COASTAL WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/COMBS/LEGRO
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