982
FXUS61 KGYX 101034
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
634 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS. NO MAJOR
CHANGES NEEDED TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASING HUMIDITY IS GOING TO POSE AT LEAST A MODERATE
HEAT RISK IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RISK DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TODAY AND THURSDAY.
3. OTHER THAN A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY, DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
RETURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICBLE TODAY AS A MOIST AIR
MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. IT WILL ONLY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DRY OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY BUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE HEAT INDICES IN THE 85 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE WITH
THE HOTTEST READINGS BEING IN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY OF NH. THAT
WOULD BE THE BEST CANDIDATE FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ON THURSDAY,
BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS TO BE MARGINAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS GOING TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW DESPITE THE HOT
WEATHER. THIS IS DUE TO THE PALTRY DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AND
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER, A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE PULSE STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A 25-30 K THETA-E
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE SFC AND MID LEVELS AT MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO CONTINUED HEIGHT
FALLS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY WANE
LATE IN THE EVENING.
ONE THING WE WILL HAVE IS VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TODAY AND THURSDAY (NEARING 2 INCHES IN SOME SPOTS) WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLOW
MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS WHICH COULD POSE A THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH SUCH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A 500MB RIDGE FLATTENS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US THIS WEEKEND, WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BEING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
WRAPAROUND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE ATTACHED SURFACE LOW SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS FOR WHAT
HAPPENS BEYOND SATURDAY, THOUGH UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD
POTENTIALLY REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY
BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS
AFTENROON AND EVENING. THESE COULD PRODUCE INSTANCES OF IFR TO
MVFR RESTRICTIONS, BUT DUE TO LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING/DURATION, HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TEMPO GROUPS. THE
ATMOSPHERE FURTHER MOISTENS TONIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LOWER CIGS AND FOG QUITE POSSIBLE. THESE
WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING WHILE WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: GENERALLY VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR
POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. FOG IS
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY: SHRA MOVES ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS, IMPROVING TO VFR SOUTH TO
NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY, BUT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
SUNDAY: UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE VFR TOWARDS THE COAST.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
CURRENT FORECASTS CALL FOR WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/EKSTER/PALMER
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