020
FXUS61 KGYX 110625
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR
SOUTHERN NH.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS GOING TO POSE AT LEAST A MODERATE
HEAT RISK IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL POSE A LOW THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY, WITH AN INCREASED
THREAT ON FRIDAY.
3. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING STORMS
TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL CAUSE A HEAT RISK AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY MAJOR HEAT RISK (APPARENT
TEMPERATURES >= 95F) CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WOULD BE ISOLATED
TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, ESPECIALLY
THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK AS
APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
GOING TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR RELIEF
FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE SUNRISE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL WANE. UNTIL THEN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, PATCHY DENSE FOG
MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MIDST OF THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL AID IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE ONE. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE ONE MAY BE
AT RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS. MOST CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED.
ON FRIDAY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL
TIMING. IF IT'S TOO LATE WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH. HOWEVER, AS OF
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS IN VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL ALLOW FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. PWATS NEAR 1.5" SUGGEST A FAIRLY HUMID
ENVIRONMENT IN THE AREA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN ADDITION TO SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A FEW MAY BE STRONG. BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY...IFR LOOKS TO BECOME LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END AND A VERY MOIST
AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BOTH BE
PRESENT. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 12Z
THIS MORNING, EXCEPT RESTRICTIONS MAY LAST LONGER AT AUG AND
RKD.
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRING ABOUT TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS NEAR THE COAST. GENERALLY VFR
FRIDAY WITH TEMPO RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NH.
FRIDAY NIGHT, RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS, LOW
CIGS, AND PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY, BUT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR TO START SUNDAY. A FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MONDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WINDS AND
SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AND SEAS APPROACHING 4 FEET AROUND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ005-007>013-015.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/PALMER
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