601
FXUS61 KGYX 111604
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1204 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY THROUGH 10 PM TODAY. OTHERWISE MINOR CHANGES POPS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING ACROSS SW
NEW HAMPSHIRE THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS GOING TO POSE AT LEAST A MODERATE
HEAT RISK IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL POSE A LOW THREAT FOR
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED TODAY, WITH AN INCREASED
THREAT ON FRIDAY.
3. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING STORMS
TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL CAUSE A HEAT RISK AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY MAJOR HEAT RISK (APPARENT
TEMPERATURES >= 95F) CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NH, ESPECIALLY THE MERRIMACK VALLEY AND
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPECT AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK AS APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS GOING TO
INCREASE ON FRIDAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR RELIEF FRIDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE SUNRISE AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL WANE. UNTIL THEN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD RISK DUE TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, PATCHY DENSE FOG
MAY AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE TODAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE MIDST OF THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS. THIS WILL AID IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE ONE. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE ONE MAY BE
AT RISK FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS. MOST CAMS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED.
ON FRIDAY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUR WESTERN ZONES IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL
TIMING. IF IT'S TOO LATE WE MAY NOT SEE MUCH. HOWEVER, AS OF
RIGHT NOW CONDITIONS IN VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL ALLOW FOR THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY EVENING. PWATS NEAR 1.5" SUGGEST A FAIRLY HUMID
ENVIRONMENT IN THE AREA. THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN ADDITION TO SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A FEW MAY BE STRONG. BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN MUCH COOLER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...LIFR TO IFR LOOKS REMAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO BOTH FOG AND LOW STRATUS, BUT A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE MORNING GOES ON, ALTHOUGH
RESTRICTIONS AT RKD.
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRING ABOUT TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
IFR TO LIFR RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS NEAR THE COAST.
GENERALLY VFR FRIDAY WITH TEMPO RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NH.
FRIDAY NIGHT, RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS, LOW
CIGS, AND PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY, BUT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR TO START SUNDAY. A FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MONDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WINDS AND
SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AND SEAS APPROACHING 4 FEET AROUND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ005-007>013-
015.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/EKSTER/PALMER/SCHROETER
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