030
FXUS61 KGYX 111915
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
315 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND
INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BRINGING AT LEAST A MODERATE
HEAT RISK. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE.
2. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL
BRING THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ME AND NH.
STORMS ACROSS NH MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE FRIDAY EVENING.
3. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
4. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM TODAY WITH T8S APPROACHING +20C. A
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON CLOUDS THAT MAY LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST SPOTS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND INTERIOR
WESTERN MAINE TO REACH THE LOW 90S FOR HIGHS WITH HEAT INDICES
OF 95-100F. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL STILL EXPERIENCE VERY HUMID
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES. WEAK WAVES
MOVING THROUGH A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST COMBINED WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE HIGH
PWATS COMBINED WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12KFT WILL ALLOW
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE
STRONGER CELLS. RECENT RUNS OF HI RES GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN
FOCUSING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
CENTRAL MAINE AND A SECOND AREA ACROSS SW NH. LATEST 1-HOUR
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS IS GENERALLY AROUND 2 INCHES
WITH 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AROUND 2.5-3 INCHES. FLOW
ALOFT IS WEAK, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SUGGEST STORMS WILL SOMEWHAT
TRANSIENT ENOUGH THAT THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW BUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG LIKELY TONIGHT.
A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY EVENING. THE 12Z HREF
BRINGS AN AXIS OF MU CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KJ ACROSS NH INTO WESTERN
MAINE WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT LACKING AROUND 25 KTS.
HREF MEMEBERS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING STORMS COULD INITIATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE LAKES REGION OF NH THROUGH
THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS INTO CENTRAL MAINE. THE LACK OF SHEAR
WITH THESE STORMS SUGGEST THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS WHILE HIGH PWATS AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES. LOW MBE VELOCITY VECTORS OVER CENTRAL MAINE
ALSO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS. THE
12Z HREF MAX 3-HOUR RATES DOES BRING UPWARDS OF 3-4 INCHES ACROSS
CARROL COUNTY AND CENTRAL MAINE... BOTH OF WHICH MAY BE MORE
SENSITIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT'S HEAVY RAIN IN CARROL
COUNTY AND TODAY'S RAIN IN CENTRAL MAINE. THEREFORE THESE AREAS WILL
NEED TO BE CLOSELY WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD WANE INTO
THE EVENING WHEN ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO CONVECTION ARIVING WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAMS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE CT VALLEY AROUND 8 PM FRIDAY.
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
MU CAPE TO HANG AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG PER THE HREF MEAN WITH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 30 KTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS
TO APPROACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS BRINGING MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT
WHILE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS NH INTO WESTERN MAINE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY DO SO. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THESE STORMS IMPACTING AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PWATS REMAIN HIGH AND HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR DRYING TREND WEST TO EAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WILL FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE HEAT INDICES SHOULD NOT DIFFER TOO
SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLOUDY BY LATE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS AS WELL AS ACROSS WESTERN NH. DEPENDING ON
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. HIGHS WILL BE INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY LOOK TO FEATURE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE MORE UNSETTLED WITH NEARBY
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STORM SURGE UP
TO AROUND 1/2 FOOT MAY BRING TOTAL WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND, ME AND POINTS
SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUD BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND MAY
BRING OCCASIONAL MVFR WHILE VFR LIKELY PREVAILS INTO THE
EVENING. LOWERING CIGS AND PATCHY FOR LIKELY BRINGS WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR TONIGHT WHILE CON AND MHT MAY STAY VFR. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AWAY FROM THE COAST FRIDAY MORNING WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
MAY KEEP LOW STRATUS AND FOG NEAR PWM, AUG, AND RKD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA. FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE DRIER AIR ARRIVING OVERNIGHT SHOULD
LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH W-NW WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: LATE DAY AND EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. S-SE
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO SATURDAY. A
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT.
S-SE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS OVER THE WATERS EARLY ON
MONDAY. SEAS UP TO 5 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ012-018-019-
033.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ004>013-015.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ005-007>013-
015.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...SCHROETER/TUBBS
MARINE...SCHROETER/TUBBS
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