409
FXUS61 KGYX 121234
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
834 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CARROL COUNTY, NH THROUGH
THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TODAY WITH
MODEL GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN SLOW MOVING STORMS
FORMING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
WHILE COVERAGE IN STORMS MAY BE LIMITED THE THREAT IS THERE FOR
RAINFALL RATES OF 3 INCHES PER HOUR WHICH WILL POSE AN ISOLATED
RISK FOR CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS EVENING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO TODAY BRINGING AT LEAST A
MODERATE HEAT RISK. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE.
2. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAY BE STRONG.
3. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING THE
THREAT FOR SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
4. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED YESTERDAY. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN WHICH ALONG WITH DEVELOPING EAST WINDS COULD KNOCK
TEMPERATURES DOWN TO LEVELS LOWER THAN FORECAST. EARLY MORNING
FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS WELL, AND COULD AFFECT THE MORNING
COMMUTE IN SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS PER LATEST CAMS, WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY, WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER
THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS WHEN MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ARRIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS MAY AID IN BETTER COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDST OF AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED MY
MARGINALLY MODERATE CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR THAT WILL BE
FAIRLY WEAK. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ONE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE
DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THE COAST SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE FOG DURING THE
EVENING WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE.
THE COLD FRONT USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR FOR SATURDAY. WHILE
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL INTO THE 80S (90 IS POSSIBLE FAR
SOUTH) THE HEAT INDEX WILL BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF THE HOT DAYS FOR PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT THE LOW
90S FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THINGS STAND
CURRENTLY, THERE IS ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND ENOUGH MIXING THAT
DEWPOINTS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 60. SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES.
BY SUN AFTERNOON THOUGH MODELS ARE ALREADY HINTING AT A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF LOCALLY, WHILE THE MAIN TROF/COLD FRONT HANGS BACK ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL NY. SO FROM ABOUT MIDDAY ONWARD, I CANNOT REALLY
RULE OUT CONVECTION. MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SOMETHING AKIN TO A MARGINAL RISK IS POSSIBLE.
COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC LURKING NEARBY, I CERTAINLY HAVE
MY EYES ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE IN THE
FORECAST AREA. SAMPLING A FEW FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE MAY BE
PRETTY HEALTHY LOW LEVEL CAPE, WHICH IS TYPICALLY ALL WE NEED TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT SHEAR
SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. I'M COMFORTABLE LEAVING
WHATEVER THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES THE NBM GUIDANCE HAS, WITH DETAILS TO
BE REFINED ONCE THE EVENT MOVES INTO THE HI-RES CAM WINDOW BY THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN. LARGELY LOOKING AT HIGHS
RANGING 75 TO 85 DEGREES, WITH NIGHTTIME TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S TO LOW 60S MOST OF THE TIME. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION, AND IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO RULE OUT RAIN SHOWERS COMPLETELY. ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
MID TO LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY, BUT CERTAINLY NOT ORGANIZED. THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
FRI OR SAT, WHEN A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROF IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
NORTHEAST. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THAT COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY NUMEROUS, AND WILL REPRESENT OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STORM SURGE UP
TO AROUND 1/2 FOOT MAY BRING TOTAL WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND, ME AND POINTS
SOUTH.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH SATURDAY: LOWERING CIGS AND PATCHY FOR LIKELY BRINGS
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE CON AND MHT MAY
STAY VFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS MORNING
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP LOW STRATUS AND FOG NEAR PWM, AUG,
AND RKD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT
AFTER 22Z OR SO. DRIER AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH W-NW WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: LATE DAY AND EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. S-SE
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO SATURDAY. A
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT
AND IMPROVES VSBYS DRAMATICALLY FOR SAT.
S-SE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS OVER THE WATERS EARLY ON
MONDAY. SEAS UP TO 5 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ012-018-019-033.
NH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NHZ004-006.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ004>013-015.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/LEGRO/SCHROETER
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