429
FXUS61 KGYX 131856
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
256 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HAS INCREASED SOME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING A POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
2. EXPECT HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THE COMBINATION
OF CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND LOWER DEW POINTS ALLOWS FOR
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME COASTAL FOG IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS PENOBSCOT BAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S. ALONG THE COAST, THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS
INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LATEST MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A POSSIBLE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CROSS UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF
THIS FRONT IS NOT IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CELLS
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AND RATHER SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION DESPITE RATHER
WEAK MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. GIVEN INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS, WIND
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT CURVED HODOGRAPHS AND POTENTIALLY
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL INTRODUCE A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO (ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER).
THE LATEST SPC D2 OUTLOOK PLACES INTERIOR WESTERN ME AND
NORTHERN AND EASTERN NH INTO A MRGL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) WITH A SLGT
RISK IN PORTIONS OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN NH (LEVEL 2/5). STORMS
WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING DOWNPOURS WITH PWATS ~1-1.5".
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STORM SURGE UP TO AROUND A
HALF OF A FOOT MAY BRING TOTAL WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MONDAY WILL SEE THE START OF SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING OUT TO SEA AS WE REMAIN UNDER CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE MOST WILL SEE DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK GIVEN
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S NORTH, TO THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE
INTERIOR OF MAINE, AND THE COAST. HIGHS WILL THEN BE VERY SIMILAR ON
TUESDAY, BUT WE COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A WARMUP ON WEDNESDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS POPS UP OVER MAINE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY. GLOBAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
BRING OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND WESTERN MAINE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST A 40 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND A 20 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH, WHICH IS A PRETTY GOOD SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS THIS FAR OUT. AS OF NOW, THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN AREAS ARE FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES. MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING LIMITED INSTABILITY, BUT WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS AND AN
ENERGETIC TROUGH IN PLACE, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KRKD WHERE MARINE
FG/STRATUS MAY BRING MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME S AT
10-20 KTS ON SUNDAY. SHRA AND TSRA WILL THEN ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH LOWER
CEILINGS.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY - WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.
SOME LOCAL VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF LEB AND HIE AT
NIGHT.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS S
WIND GUSTS INCREASE UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS
BUILD TO 3-6 FT.
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK, BUT COULD RETURN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/HARGROVE
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