029
FXUS61 KGYX 141921
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
321 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
STILL MONITORING ONGOING CONVECTION FOR BOTH SEVERE AS WELL AS
HYDROLOGICAL THREATS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, BRINGING A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
2. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
3. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN
UNSETTLED SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK IS LIKELY WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE CROWN OF ME
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. NEW ENGLAND IS SITTING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN LIGHTNING ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST
HOUR OR SO. THE 18Z KGYX RAOB REPORT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE REGION WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AT 52 KTS ALONG
WITH 0-3KM OF 50 KTS. SURFACE BASED CAPE WAS SAMPLED TO BE AT
AROUND 1400 J/KG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT ~8C/KM.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE WEAKER SIDE BUT GIVEN THE
PLETHORA OF SHEAR IN PLACE ALONG WITH GROWING INSTABILITY AND
LIFT, EXPECTING STORM COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THIS IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY LATEST CAM GUIDANCE,
THOUGH WITH DIFFERING SOLUTIONS BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE WIND, BOTH FROM
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND POTENTIAL DOWNBURSTS. A BRIEF TORNADO
ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOR POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AND WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL WAS EXPERIENCED A FEW DAYS AGO. OBSERVED RAINFALL
RATES OF AROUND 1"/HR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR AND THEREFORE
LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 2-3" ARE LIKELY WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 4" POSSIBLE.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THE THREAT
FROM LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING MAY PERSIST
UNTIL EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. THE EVENING TIDES
ARE OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR MINOR FLOODING, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE LEVELS TO BE MET FOR PORTLAND AND HAMPTON THIS
EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.
THIS EVENING'S TIDE WILL ALIGN WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS
A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN GROWING
SEA STATE, BUT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4 FT REMAIN MORE TAME VS.
WINTER SYSTEMS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTLAND THROUGH THE NH SEACOAST FOR THIS EVENING'S TIDE AFTER
9PM.
SUBSEQUENT TIDES WILL FEATURE LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS, BUT HIGH STILL
WATER WILL STILL RISE INTO ACTION STAGE, AND APPROACH MINOR
FLOOD STAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS TO RETURN FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD 70S AND 80S ARE ANTICIPATED DURING
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S,
WITH 40S ACROSS THE NORTH. THE HUMIDITY WILL START TO CREEP
BACK UP TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN.
THAT WILL COME AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE FIRST OF THREE
DISTURBANCES ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A DECAYING LOW
BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM THEN
LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EVENING. SOME WRAPAROUND SHOWERS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAY
PERSIST, WITH SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. UNSETTLED
WEATHER MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY: SHRA AND TSRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG WITH LOWERING CEILINGS TO MVFR OR WORSE. ANY TSRA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL,
ESPECIALLY ALOFT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TSRA IS AT KLEB, KHIE,
AND KAUG. S WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 12Z MONDAY WITH NW WINDS AT 10-20 KTS. LLWS IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AT AROUND 1K FT.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY, POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
LATE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHRA AND LOWERING
CEILINGS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO RA AND
INCREASING SE WINDS.
FRIDAY: POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LINGERING SHRA.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH SEAS OF 3-6 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 20 KTS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
LATE WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM CROSSES WEST OF THE WATERS,
POSSIBLY BRINGING SCA TO GALE FORCE GUSTS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ023>028.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR MEZ023-024.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>004.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS
AVIATION...TUBBS
MARINE...TUBBS
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