038
FXUS61 KGYX 020619
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
219 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BASED ON TRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS, WENT JUST A TOUCH COOLER
FOR HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD HEAT HEADLINES STILL LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD AND THEN LINGERS INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE HEAT REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY (LEVEL 1/5
FOR SEVERE WEATHER).
3. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME HEAT BREAKS DOWN LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A DOWN TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE HEAT WILL BE PEAKING TODAY-FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE +18-21C. WESTERLY FLOW BOTH DAYS SHOULD ALSO ADD A DOWNSLOPE
WARMING BOOST WHILE NEGATING SEA BREEZES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. 100 DEGREE HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE IF FULL SURFACE HEATING CAN
BE ATTAINED. WITH DEW POINTS STILL HANGING IN THE UPPER 60S-LOW
70S, THIS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INIDICES OF 105-110+.
NIGHTTIME WILL BRING VERY LIMITED RELIEF WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE 70S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, WITH A CHANCE
THE VALLEYS IN SOUTHEAST NH STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST TODAY, NAMELY
"RIDGE ROLLERS" ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHEAR AND FORCING WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE ON THE WEAK SIDE, WHICH WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY, WHILE IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE
YESTERDAY'S ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE PUSHING OFFSHORE. THUS,
CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER, BUT MEAN HI-RES GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING A HEALTHY 1500-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THIS SET OF
INGREDIENTS, WOULD EXPECT DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
FINALLY, CONVECTION WILL BE A FOR US ATTAINING THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT
MORE CONCENTRATED STORM COVERAGE COULD CUT DOWN ON PEAK
TEMPERATURES LOCALLY, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATER ON FRIDAY OR EVEN SATURDAY, BUT REGARDLESS, WE
SHOULD BEGIN HEADING IN A MORE COMFORTABLE DIRECTION. THIS STILL
BRINGS ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S SATURDAY, BUT WILL MARK A DOWNWARD TREND FROM THE PEAK
OF THE HEAT. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE LOWER ON SATURDAY, KEEPING
HEAT INDICES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THE AIR TEMPS.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND,
OWING TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING, BUT ALSO GIVEN IT WILL STILL BE
SCATTERED IN NATURE MOST LIKELY. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO
HONE IN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY, WHILE SUNDAY'S THREAT MAY PUSH
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SAGGING FRONT. DETAILS SHOULD
SHARPEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HI-RES GUIDANCE BEGINS TO ARRIVE.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD THE TRANSITION TO A
BROAD TROUGH FOLLOWING THIS RIDGE, WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WE THEN MAY SEE ANOTHER WARM UP MIDWEEK AS THERE IS
SURPRISING AGREEMENT ALREADY OF ANOTHER RIDGE TAKING SHAPE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT SOME
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT
MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY AND TONIGHT. VALLEY FOG OR LOW STRATUS IS
ALSO LIKELY AT LEB AND HIE THIS MORNING. SOME SHALLOW MARINE FOG
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT RKD THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY-MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. SEAS UP TO 5FT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
WATERS LATE TONIGHT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME PATCHES OF MARINE FOG
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE MIDCOAST SHORELINE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE WATERS LATE WEEK KEEPING WINDS AND
SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES...
JULY2ND 3RD
AUG 93 (1963) 94 (2002)
PWM 98 (1941) 95 (2002)
CON 98 (1966) 102 (1966)
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ012-018>020-
023-033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ013-014.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MEZ021-022-024>028.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>003.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ004>015.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE
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