841
FXUS61 KGYX 021826
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED FOR FRIDAY TO INCLUDE
COASTAL CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND THE MIDCOAST REGION. OPTED TO
BEGIN THEM AS SOON AS THE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS END (8 PM),
AS ACCUMULATED HEAT STRESS FROM WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINS A
FACTOR.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT CONTINUES TO BUILD AND THEN LINGERS INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY. OVERALL THE HEAT REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
DEWPOINTS WILL BE TRENDING COOLER.
2. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
(LEVEL 1/5 FOR SEVERE WEATHER) AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.
3.THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME HEAT BREAKS DOWN LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR GRADUALLY COOLING
TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ARE GREATEST SATURDAY AND
THEN AGAIN BY MONDAY/TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FRIDAY AS +18-21C HEIGHTS WILL MIX DOWN TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
(MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE MORE THE STORY TO THE NORTH). WEST
WINDS SHOULD FIGHT OFF THE SEABREEZE SO THESE WARM TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FELT RIGHT DOWN TO THE WATER ONCE AGAIN. THESE
CONTINUED WEST WINDS ARE LIKELY GOING TO MAKE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER IN SPOTS, BUT WE WILL ALSO
SEE DEWPOINTS START TO TREND COOLER, SO DESPITE THIS THE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES LIKELY END UP A HAIR COOLER THAN WHAT IS
BEING EXPERIENCED TODAY. FOR THIS REASON, I DON'T THINK ITS
NECESSARY TO CONTINUE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR COASTAL
CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND THE MIDCOAST REGION AND INSTEAD HAVE ADDED
THEM INTO THE HEAT ADVISORY. AREAS CURRENTLY SLATED TO REMAIN
IN THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING ARE UNCHANGED, AS EVEN IF WE DON'T
QUITE HIT APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 105F THE ACCUMULATED HEAT
STRESS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS JUSTIFY CONTINUING IT. A
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY WHICH WILL
BRING COOLER DEWPOINTS, BUT SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO THE NORTH. THE
ADVANTAGE IS THAT WITH LESS HUMIDITY IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE AND LESS LIKE THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ON SATURDAY,
DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT, WHERE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY ADVISORIES FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE SIGNAL FOR ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER LOW BOTH THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING WITH FORCING RATHER WEAK AS WE
SIT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT BEING SAID...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IF A STORM IS ABLE
TO INITIATE. CAMS SUGGEST THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS COMES IN
THE EVENING HOURS BOTH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING.
WHILE COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO BE LOW...THERE WILL BE MODERATE DEEP
SHEAR....MODERATE MLCAPE AND RATHER ROBUST DCAPE TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD FOLLOWED BY A LOWER POTENTIAL FOR HAIL. THESE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST OVER NH GIVEN THE RIDGE LOCATION AND RECENT CAM
GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BEFORE WE GET A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL
SUNDAY AND THEN CLOSER TO EARLY JULY NORMS FOR SUNDAY. BEYOND
THIS...THERE IS OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS ON ANOTHER...SLOWER
MOVING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WITH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A
ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TUESDAY IF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50/50
SPLIT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ON THE WETTER/COOLER
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR RAINFALL
BEING OVER SOUTHERN NH AND SW ME. REGARDLESS OF THE TUESDAY
FORECAST...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THE FORECAST WILL TURN
DRIER AND WARMER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
WHERE EXACTLY THEY WILL POP UP, BUT IF THEY DO PASS OVER A
TERMINAL EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. ANY INSTANCES OF FOG
TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY ISOLATED.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, FIGHTING
OFF THE SEABREEZE. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES...
JULY 3RD
AUG 94 (2002)
PWM 95 (2002)
CON 102 (1966)
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ012-018>020-
023-033.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ013-014.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ021-
022-024>028.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ021-022-024>028.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>003.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NHZ004>015.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ013-014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARNOTT/BARON
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