100
FXUS61 KGYX 031018
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
618 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOR THIS UPDATE, JUST BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE
GOING FORECAST AND FRESHENED UP THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ONE MORE DAY OF INTENSE HEAT TODAY.
2. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE (LEVEL 1/5 FOR
SEVERE WEATHER).
3. TEMPERATURES START SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN TOMORROW WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP A TOUCH BUT REMAIN +17-20C. WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD ALSO ADD A DOWNSLOPE WARMING BOOST WHILE NEGATING SEA
BREEZES. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 90S OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH UPPER 90S IN THE WARM SPOTS. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP A TOUCH FROM YESTERDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTING DANGEROUS HEAT
INIDICES OVER 100 DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST, WE
WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. WHILE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS
FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY MEAGER, A WEAK WAVE MAY CROSS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE HERE. PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS AND MAYBE
SOME HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
UNTIL LATE TODAY OR EVEN SATURDAY, BUT REGARDLESS, WE SHOULD
BEGIN HEADING IN A MORE COMFORTABLE DIRECTION. THIS STILL BRINGS
ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY SATURDAY WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S, BUT
WILL MARK A DOWNWARD TREND FROM THE PEAK OF THE HEAT. DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO BE LOWER ON SATURDAY, KEEPING HEAT INDICES WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF THE AIR TEMPS.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND,
OWING TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING, BUT IT WILL MOST LIKELY
STILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING
TO HONE IN ON PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW FOR RELIEF IN THE FORM OF LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS A BROAD TROUGH
FOLLOWING THIS RIDGE, WHICH WOULD CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WELL AS KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WE THEN MAY SEE ANOTHER WARM UP MIDWEEK AS THERE IS
SURPRISING AGREEMENT ALREADY OF ANOTHER RIDGE TAKING SHAPE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL SEE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT/TIMING REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SPECIFIC SITE FOR NOW. IF A STORM
DOES PASS OVERHEAD, BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANY INSTANCES OF FOG TONIGHT SHOULD ALSO BE VERY
ISOLATED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
LEAD TO SOME BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MVFR OR
IFR RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE THE PERIOD.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, FIGHTING OFF THE
SEABREEZE. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES...
JULY 3RD
AUG 94 (2002)
PWM 95 (2002)
CON 102 (1966)
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
018>020-023-033.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013-014-021-
022-024>028.
NH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page