450
FXUS61 KGYX 041420
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1020 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXPANDED POP COVERAGE INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BUILDING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE
AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS AS IT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
MORNING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHORT LIVED, BUT BETTER FUEL AND SHEAR
WILL INCREASE STRENGTH/LONGEVITY AFTER NOONTIME. IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING, STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NOT QUITE AS HOT AND HUMID TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
STORMS, SOME STRONG, THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
2. COOLER AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
LIKELY WARMING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY BUT IT WON'T BE AS
STIFLING AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE WARMEST PORTION OF
THE AIR MASS HAS SLID TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING
THE VERY HIGH DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG WITH IT. EVEN STILL,
SOUTHEASTERN NH SHOULD REACH HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 95F.
THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE HEAT INIDICES BELOW 95F AS
GUSTY NW FLOW MIXES DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAY PROVIDE FOCUS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS ACROSS WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN NH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG TODAY'S SAGGING COLD FRONT (WHICH
WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC BY THE START OF THE WEEK).
THERE REMAINS A RATHER BIMODEL DISTRIBUTION WITH QPF. ONE GROUPING
FEATURES A SCENARIO WHERE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSES THE WAVE
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WITH JUST CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OTHER CAMP HOWEVER BRINGS RAINFALL
FURTHER NORTHEAST, IMPACTING THE REGION MORE DIRECTLY. HOWEVER EVEN
IN A MORE NORTHERN OUTCOME, EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO BE LIGHT,
WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS SOUTH OF OUR REGION. LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING IS THE POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED PERIOD TO WATCH.
DEPENDING ON THE OUTCOME, TEMPERATURES MAY BE ON THE MILD SIDE, WITH
THE WARM SECTOR SQUASHED WELL TO THE SOUTH. THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE COOLER AS WELL. FOR REFERENCE, 850 MB TEMPERATURES
WERE UP AROUND +20C DURING LAST WEEK'S HEATWAVE, BUT WILL BE
DROPPING TO AROUND +12C BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK, SIGNALING A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND. THIS HIGH MAY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY LATE WEEK,
POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER RETURN TO HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. A TROUGH ALSO MAY BE SWINGING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA BY THIS TIME, INDICATING SOME SORT OF
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NH THIS AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS. VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT LEB AND HIE TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY W/ NO SIG WX.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH POSSIBLE,
OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. MVFR
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: RAIN DEPARTS EAST, WITH IMPROVING CIG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR LIKELY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE WATERS WILL SEE PRIMARILY A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THEN TURNING BACK
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OVER NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EXITS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012>015.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CORNWELL/EKSTER
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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