177
FXUS61 KGYX 051054
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
654 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR TODAY.
2. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CENTERED ON TUESDAY. GREATEST CHANCE FOR
SOAKING RAINS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
3. WARMING UP BY LATE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION IS DELIVERING A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN
THE 80S), DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR LOW HEAT INDICES.
AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL COOL OFF THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR TONIGHT WITH ONLY A
VERY LOW PROB OF A SHOWER ACROSS SOUTHERN NH LATE AS A SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
YESTERDAY'S SAGGING COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC,
BEFORE PROGRESSING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY-TUESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, A SURFACE LOW WILL RIDE EAST ALONG THE FRONT. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE LARGELY SHOWS A TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION, BUT SOME
MEMBERS GET CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. AS SUCH, WE ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE COOL AND STABLE SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AS
OPPOSED TO WHAT WAS THE CAST LAST WEEK.
RIGHT NOW GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A ROUGHLY 30% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
TO EXCEED AN INCH IN THE CONCORD-MANCHESTER-PORTSMOUTH CORRIDOR,
WHILE PROBABILITIES DROP SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS INTERIOR NH AND MUCH OF
MAINE. MEANWHILE FOR 2", VALUES REACH 20% ACROSS THE MA/NH BORDER.
THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN, AND MODELS ARE
QUITE BULLISH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WPC
CLIPS SOUTHERN NH IN A DAY 3 ERO, SO IT IS WORTH KEEPING TABS ON
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WORKING AGAINST A HEAVIER RAIN THREAT WILL BE
STABLE AIR NORTH OF THE FRONT, MEANING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE
STEADY AND STRATIFORM RATHER THAN LOCALLY HEAVY/CONVECTIVE. THERE
ALSO WILL BE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH FIGHTING TO
SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH. THIS SHOULD DO WORK TO KEEP
US DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW
FAR NORTH RAIN WILL REACH TUESDAY, AS NORTH-SIDE RAINFALL
GRADIENTS CAN BE NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IN ANY CASE, AT A MINIMUM,
NORTHERN NH/INTERIOR MAINE ARE LIKELY TO SEE ONLY LIMITED TO
ZERO PRECIPITATION, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR THE
MASSACHUSETTS BORDER.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID WEEK, SIGNALING A WARMING
AND DRYING TREND. THIS HIGH THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE INTO THE CLASSIC
"BERMUDA HIGH" POSITION, WHICH SHOULD BRING A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
THE REGION BY LATE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM +12C ON
TUESDAY TO +17C BY THURSDAY NIGHT. COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION, IT MAY BE VERY WARM AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD SOLIDLY BE IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY, BUT THERE
IS UPSIDE FOR LOW 90S IF IT ALL COMES TOGETHER RIGHT GIVEN A RATHER
WARM AIRMASS. FINALLY, WITH A TROUGH SWINGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA, MAY HAVE A THUNDER THREAT TO CLOSE THE WEEK. AT A GLANCE,
DEW POINTS SURGE TOWARDS 70 BY FRIDAY, BUT LAPSE RATES/CAPE
CURRENTLY LOOK MUCH TAMER WITH NO SIGN OF AN EML NEARBY
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...LIFR CIGS AT LEB LIKELY SCATTER SHORTLY
AFTER 12Z. VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SEABREEZE EXPECTED ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON SWITCHING WINDS TO ONSHORE.
VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AT LEB AND HIE.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH POSSIBLE,
OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. MVFR
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: RAIN DEPARTS EAST LATE, WITH IMPROVING CIG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR LIKELY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION.
THURSDAY: SHRA ARRIVES FROM THE NW, OTHERWISE VFR.
MARINE
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEAK WIND
FIELDS WILL PROMOTE SOME ONSHORE BREEZE TODAY AND MONDAY AS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND PASSES
TOWARDS THE DELMARVA REGION TUES. WINDS THEN SHIFT EAST TUES,
WITH BUILDING WAVES INTO WED 4 TO 5 FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/EKSTER
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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