351
FXUS61 KGYX 051914
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHIFTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR EARLY JULY ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN ARRIVES MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE.
2. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY RETURNING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES LATER THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS CENTRAL
MAINE, FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. CUMULUS HUMILIS HAS BEEN
THE PREDOMINANT CLOUD TYPE TODAY WITH A NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION PREVENTING FURTHER DEEPENING. INCREASING CIRRUS IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, BUILDING NE OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD MAKE
FOR OVERCAST SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CWA MONDAY WITH
GRADUAL LOWERING. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY TO THE
AREA, ALBEIT A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER IN THE SOUTH THAN NORTH.
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES LATE MONDAY, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT
AND AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WHILE MUCH OF
GUIDANCE HAS GRAVITATED TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN TO PUSH FURTHER
NORTH. WITH 90TH PERCENTILE 500MB HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH AND
SIMILAR CLIMO FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST, THERE
WILL BE A STRONG OPPOSITION TO NORTHERN MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT
OF CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS PAIRED WITH MARGINAL IVT THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND, HAVE REFINED QPF A FURTHER SOUTH,
ESPECIALLY FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN A QUARTER-INCH. DRY AIR WILL
LIKELY KEEP A TIGHTER GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, BUT
SOME SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CWA. WHERE INGREDIENTS ARE A LITTLE MORE IN LINE FOR
PRECIP EFFICIENCY: FGEN BANDING IN SOUTHERN NH AMID 90TH
PERCENTILE PWAT VALUES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 12 TO 13 KFT,
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH CAN'T BE RULED OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXIT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY, WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A WIDE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, BUT THIS
LIKELY HINGES ON THE PRESENCE OF RAIN/THICKER CLOUDS. SHOULD
THE NORTHERN TRACK BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, THINK WE SEE THE
CHANCE FOR TEMPS TO BUMP UP FURTHER ACROSS WESTERN ME AND NORTH
NH WHERE CLOUDS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THINNER. THIS WOULD PIN THE
COOLER TEMPS FOR THE DAY IN SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME
WHERE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AND RESULT IN SFC
VALUES IN THE MID 60 TO AROUND 70.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE PASSING THROUGH BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO DRY THINGS OUT AND KICK OFF A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
BY THURSDAY THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND HIGH PRESSURE
TAKES UP RESIDENCY IN THE ATLANTIC WHICH STARTS UP SOUTHWEST
FLOW INTO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE SMALL IN
THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE WINDOW FOR INLAND LOCATIONS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F. FOR COASTAL AREAS THE SPREAD IS A BIT
LARGER ON THURSDAY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO
FIGHT OFF THE SEABREEZE, AND THAT WOULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN MID 70S AND MID 80S. THE ENSEMBLES ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN
THE SEABREEZE FAILING FRIDAY WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS AS THE
25-75TH SPREAD IS CENTERED AROUND 80F, HOWEVER WITH WESTERLY
WINDS WE USUALLY GET A LITTLE BIT OF A WARMING BOOST SO
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
TRENDS FOR TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE GOING TO HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WHICH MEANS
SOME LOCATIONS COULD BE PUSHING A 95F+ HEAT INDEX. SATURDAY WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS WELL AS CURRENTLY MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE COOLS TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
RIGHT BACK DOWN, BUT AS USUAL TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND THE EURO
CAMP IS NOTABLY SLOWER WITH IT. THESE ARE DETAILS THAT WILL BE
FLESHED OUT LATER, BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
FRIDAY BEING THE PEAK OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE OTHER FACTOR WORTH WATCHING IS THAT THE 500 MB PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND EVEN TROUGHY LATE WEEK WHICH USUALLY
LENDS ITS SELF TO CLOUDIER AND SHOWERIER/STORMIER CONDITIONS AS
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH. THIS WOULD ACT TO
PUT A DAMPER ON HOTTER TEMPERATURES IF THEY MATERIALIZE AND I
THINK WHAT THE NBM IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING WITH 20-40% POPS
MOST DAYS IS A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THAT UNCERTAINTY,
ESPECIALLY COVERAGE-WISE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...VFR. ONSHORE SEABREEZE WEAKENS THIS EVENING
WITH VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE CU THIN BUT CIRRUS THICKEN
OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD PREVENT VALLEY FOG FORMATION, BUT IF IT
THINS CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF RETURN AT LEB/HIE EARLY MON
MORNING. COULD SEE FEW OR SCT MVFR EARLY MON, BUT BASES RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MON EVENING WITH
SHRA AND RA ACROSS SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS. IFR CIGS LIKELY FOR
CON/MHT/PSM, WITH CHANCES FOR PWM INTO TUES MORNING AS WELL.
CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST TUES NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES TO THE NE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MON-TUES. WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS MON/TUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR A SCA TUESDAY
FOR THE WATERS OFF THE NH SEACOAST AS WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARDS
4 FT.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE
ATLANTIC.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CORNWELL
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