403
FXUS61 KGYX 061345
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
945 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL
MAINE AND INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THIN HIGH CLOUDS, ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BUILD TO
DEVELOP A FEW SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS THROUGH DAYTIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST U.S. TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH NEW HAMPSHIRE/WESTERN MAINE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF IT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
2. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY RETURNING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS
WELL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH, WITH AN ATTENDANT LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL RIDE
ALONG IT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST. SUCH A TRACK WILL RESULT IN US STAYING ON THE
"COOL" SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE WARM SECTOR WELL TO THE SOUTH.
ONE IMPORTANT PLAYER ON THE FIELD WILL BE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTH. WITH 90TH PERCENTILE 500MB HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH AND
SIMILAR CLIMO FOR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST, THERE WILL
BE A STRONG OPPOSITION TO NORTHERN MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS PAIRED WITH MARGINAL IVT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
OVERALL MIXED SIGNALS, AS DESPITE PLENTY OF SYNOPTIC-LEVEL
SUPPRESSION FROM THE NORTH, THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
DOES LOOK FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL; PWATS NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 12-13 KFT, AND
SOME SIGNALS FOR FGEN BANDING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.
WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. AND ON TUESDAY, THE SEACOAST IS CLIPPED BY
ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK. SPEAKING PROBABILITIES, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES A 20% CHANCE TO EXCEED AN INCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
PORTSMOUTH-CONCORD-CLAREMONT LINE. FOR 2", THAT NUMBER DROPS TO
JUST 5%. SO THE BROAD IDEA IS THE "CHANCE" FOR A SOAKING
RAINFALL STARTING THIS MORNING, AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY,
FOCUSED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NH, BUT ALSO THE POTENTIAL THAT
RAINFALL ALMOST ENTIRELY WINDS UP SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN MAINE ARE LIKELY TO SEE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION IF NOT FULLY DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY. WARMER WEATHER WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BE IN STORE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER, SIGNALS ARE THAT IT WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR THE
LEVEL THAT WE EXPERIENCED LAST WEEK. VARIOUS PIECES OF GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT MAY ATTEMPT TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTH
LATER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN TIMING BUT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE AT LEAST
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, AND THEN FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING AND LOWERING SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR IS LIKELY AT MHT
LATE TONIGHT IN LOW CIGS AND -RA WITH MVFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY AT CON AND PSM TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING. MARINE STRATUS AND
FOG WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT RKD TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER TUESDAY MORNING WITH IFR CIGS
LIKELY FOR CON/MHT/PSM, WITH CHANCES FOR PWM INTO MID DAY AS
WELL. CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST TUES NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH TUES.
WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TONIGHT/TUES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR A SCA TUESDAY
FOR THE WATERS OFF THE NH SEACOAST AS WAVE HEIGHTS BUILD TOWARDS
4 FT. IF SCA CONDITIONS ARE MET TUES/WED IT WOULD BE MARGINAL
AND LIKELY OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE
ATLANTIC.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CORNWELL/EKSTER
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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