540
FXUS61 KGYX 071916
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
316 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN AMOUNTS AND TIMING THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. FOG DEVELOPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT.
2. RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STEADY RAIN HAS REDEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF FAR SOUTHERN NH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PARENT LOW HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT SE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST, AND THIS WILL SOON INFLUENCE THE
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SEEING
AS THERE IS LITTLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT DEEPER CORES, HAVE
REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THE REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT.
UNTIL THE LOW EXITS, THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
RATES, BUT NOT EXPECTING RATES TO BE ESPECIALLY HEAVY OR CAUSE
SURFACE IMPACTS. A RESULT OF THE DAMP SURFACE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS THIN TO
ACCELERATE COOLING. AT THIS TIME, LOW STRATUS MAY SIMPLY THICKEN
AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT VISIBILITY SHOULD RECOVER EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DRY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 80S. SOUTHERN AREAS MAY MISS OUT ON A FULL DAY OF WARMING
PENDING REMAINING CLOUDS, WITH MAXES FOR THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARDS THE KENNEBEC VALLEY. WITH WEAK BACKGROUND WINDS, A
SEABREEZE COULD PUSH INLAND EARLY AFTERNOON TO BRING SOME RELIEF
TO THE WARMER TEMPS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THURSDAY BEING THE
WARMER AND MORE HUMID DAY OF THIS UPCOMING STRETCH OF ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +16-18C UNDER
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING A
FURTHER BUMP TO WARMING AND MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S GIVING THE AIR A
STICKIER FEEL AND WILL PROBABLY PUSH SOME LOCATION'S HEAT INDEX
INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES MORE IN THE UPPER
80S AND TO 90F SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS,
CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GOING TO CREEP IN
DURING PEAK HEATING AND LIKELY CAP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN FRIDAY BEING MUCH COOLER THAN
ORIGINALLY DISCUSSED WITH MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURING AND BRINGING CLOUDIER AND MORE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A BIT (+14-17C) AS THE
NEW AIRMASS BEGINS TO MOVE IN, SO THINKING LOCATIONS NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THIS SETTLES IN FIRST ONLY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, AND WITH ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THIS WOULD FEEL MORE LIKE 90F. WITH THESE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL HAVE A
GOOD SHOT AT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH FRIDAY
LIKELY HAVING THE HIGHER COVERAGE DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PROVIDING LIFT.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND
AS THE 500 MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH.
DESPITE THIS THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ARE LIKELY
GOING TO BE SEEN AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND A NORTHWESTERLY FEED THAT KEEPS TEMPERATURES ON THE PLEASANT
SIDE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL IN
PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...RAIN CONTINUES FOR SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS,
WITH RAIN RATES LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD IFR VIS. TRICKY
CEILING FORECAST TONIGHT AS NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE PRESENTS SPLIT
CASES. IFR CASE HAS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CREATING A
STRATUS DECK TONIGHT THAT BUILDS DOWN WITH FOG. LESS IMPACTFUL
CASE IS A MVFR DECK THAT REINFORCES OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH. I AM A LITTLE MORE HESITANT ABOUT THE DENSE STRATUS/FOG UP
THE ME COAST AND INTERIOR AS THEY LACKED RAIN TODAY, BUT
CONTINUING CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH WON'T NECESSARILY RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD FOG/MIST. HAVE TAKEN BOTH CASES INTO ACCOUNT PER TAF
BASED ON THESE THOUGHTS, WITH EITHER CASE RESOLVING WITH VFR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TOWARDS LEB, CLEARING SKIES SHOULD CREATE A
WINDOW FOR VALLEY FOG TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, BECOMING
VFR BY NOON LOCAL. A AFTERNOON SEABREEZE COULD CAUSE A WIND
SHIFT AT RKD/PWM/PSM.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
DECIDED TO KEEP THE SCA UP DESPITE MARGINAL CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. DO EXPECT SOME 4 TO 5 FT WAVES TOWARDS THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE ZONE, WITH GUSTS MAINLY AROUND 20 KTS. THESE
SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE PARENT LOW SINKS
SOUTHWARD. MARINE STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT OVER
AREAS OF THE WATERS, THINNING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CORNWELL
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