723
FXUS61 KGYX 090532
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
132 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURNS TODAY. IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
READINGS.
2. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD.
3. MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH A
WARMING TREND POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRAW AND HEAT AND HUMIDITY BACK
NORTH TODAY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN MODELING SINCE
THE LAST UPDATE, WITH GUIDANCE STILL FAVORING 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE +16 TO +18C RANGE. THIS IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 HIGH TEMPS. SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING MAY ALLOW THE MERRIMACK
VALLEY TO TACK ON A COUPLE EXTRA DEGREES. COUPLE THAT WITH THE
HUMIDITY AND APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S FROM ASH/MHT
EASTWARD TO THE SEACOAST. THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW. ENCROACHING CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE HEAT.
THIS WILL BE EVEN MORE TRUE OF FRI. MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL GET
KNOCKED BACK A DEGREE OR TWO, AND AS A RESULT HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
MORE LIKE THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ESPECIALLY WITH THE DEWPOINTS
REMAINING HIGH, IT WILL WILL STILL FEEL PRETTY STEAMY, BUT I DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU FRI AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL
BE FAIRLY MARGINAL, WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES ALOFT. HOWEVER WE
WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE UP FOR THAT WITH THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SOUTH OF THE FRONT. BULK SHEAR TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST ON THE
ORDER OF 25 KT, AND SO ANY STORM THAT DOES GET GOING MAY STAY
ORGANIZED. LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND DRYING ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY TO DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
TIME SPC ONLY HAS A SMALL PORTION OF COOS COUNTY IN THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT I COULD SEE THAT GETTING EXPANDED
SOUTH AND EASTWARD.
SIMILARLY ON FRI THE THREAT WILL PUSH FARTHER SOUTH AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG INTO THE AREA. OVERALL THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FRI HAVE MORE MOISTURE, SO WE CAN ADD TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AS
ANOTHER HAZARD. ONCE AGAIN MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. WIND REMAINS THE
PRIMARY STORM HAZARD. ON BOTH DAYS VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING
CONVECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
SO I COULD SEE THE NEW DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK INCLUDING A
MARGINAL RISK IN THE, OR AT THE VERY LEAST THE NEED TO BE
PREPARED FOR STRONGER STORMS FRI AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. A FEW
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS AN H5 S/WV TROF
SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
A LONG WAVE H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST FOR THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND H5 S/WV TROF MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE TIMING OF THIS TROF AND FRONT WILL PLAY A
LARGE ROLE IN TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH LEB AND HIE
POSSIBLE SEEING LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS AGAIN TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE OR LESS A
PERSISTENCE BASED FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT DELAY IN TIMING DUE TO
DRIER CONDITIONS. ANY VALLEY FOG THAT FORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH THE PREVAILING CONDITION TURNING BACK
TO VFR. SOME TEMPO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD
TO TAFS AT THIS TIME.
AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER THERE WILL BE A GROWING THREAT FOR
MARINE FOG AND STRATUS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS FRI MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN FOG/STRATUS OVER THE MIDCOAST.
LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPO RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY PM WITHIN POSSIBLE
SHRA/-TSRA.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
AREAS OF FOG LIKELY BEGIN TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THRU
FRI UNTIL THE FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS.
OUTLOOK:
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WITH S WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS OF
3-5 FT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012-013.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/TUBBS
AVIATION...LEGRO/TUBBS
MARINE...LEGRO/TUBBS
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