012
FXUS61 KGYX 110031
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
831 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS EVENING. MINOR REFRESH
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE WEEKEND.
2. THE TWO MAIN FOCI FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF ELEVATED HEAT
AND A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH
BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL. THIS TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT WITH DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
SENSIBLE WEATHER LIKELY IS GOING TO BE LIMITED TO JUST AN
INCREASE IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND 70S TO THE NORTH. THE TROUGH
AXIS THEN SWINGS EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR A CLEARER DAY ON
SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE
NORTH AND INTERIOR. SEA BREEZES ARE GOING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
SIMILAR ON THE COASTAL PLAIN BOTH DAYS. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
(FRIDAY NIGHT) THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE GOING TO MAKE FOR SOME
COOL NIGHTS AS TEMPERATURES RADIATE DOWN INTO THE 50S AND LOW
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUD-FREE. ON MONDAY, THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO MID AND UPPER 80S TO MAYBE LOW 90S BY
MID-AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHERN NH AND
NORTHWESTERN ME WHERE FORCING WILL BE GREATEST.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE WARMING TREND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND ACCORDING TO LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY NEXT WEEK. HIGH CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA REACHING
AT LEAST 90 DEGREES, WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND SOUTHWESTERN ME AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY
REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THESE AIR TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH ONGOING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S, MAY CREATE APPARENT TEMPERATURES AROUND 100
DEGREES. LATER ON TUESDAY, A LOW- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE, IMPACTING MOSTLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE WIND SHEAR
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF STORMS CAPABLE OF
MAINLY STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
FURTHER INTO THE WEEK, SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE THROUGH OUR AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SOMEWHAT AFFECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES THAT DAY. MODEL TRENDS MAY BE HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER PASSAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS, IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BACK DOWN A LITTLE INTO THE
LOW 90S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE HUMIDITY ON THE OTHER HAND
WILL DECREASE, WHICH WILL PROVIDE SLIGHT RELIEF. THERE IS ALSO
UNCERTAINTY OVER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD,
ALTHOUGH NBM POP INDICATES AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR SOME WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS THE NORTHEAST
TRANSITIONS INTO TROUGHING ALOFT WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING THE
VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY....VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED AWAY FROM FOG AT LEB
TONIGHT AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION, BUT VCFG MAY
BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE NEARBY RIVERS. FOR SATURDAY EXPECT A
LIGHT CU FIELD AND WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW GIVING WAY TO LOCAL WIND
INFLUENCES, MAINLY VIA A SEABREEZE ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SSE WIND SHIFT EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
PSM/PWM/RKD.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR OTHER THAN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
OR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AT HIE AND LEB.
MONDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WELL.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOVES OUT IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SCA CONDITIONS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE WATERS SOMETIME IN THE
LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS TURNING WEST TO
NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO STAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, KEEPING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONT COULD CROSS THE
WATERS DURING THAT TIME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/COMBS
AVIATION...BARON/COMBS/CORNWELL
MARINE...BARON/COMBS
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