562
FXUS61 KGYX 110537
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
137 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN LOWERING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD AND SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN BY TUESDAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LIKELY
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING,
BROAD AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TAKES UP RESIDENCE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 1020 TO
1023 READING IS STRONG, BUT WON'T BE SETTING CLIMO RECORDS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE HIGH'S PRESENCE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND DAYTIME CUMULUS. DESPITE THE MIXED LAYER
DEEPENING TO AROUND 750MB, THERE IS LITTLE MOMENTUM TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE, SO DAYS SHOULD FEATURE GENTLE BREEZE. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A DAILY SEA BREEZE IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR
POINTS ALONG THE COAST.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL RUN AT OR WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND, MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY LOW LEVELS
AND LARGE DAYTIME DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. THUS WHILE IT WILL BE
WARM, HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BRING OVERNIGHT
RELIEF, WITH THE CHANCE SOME AREAS DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S. THE
LACK OF MUCH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BRING THESE
CHANCES FROM THE WHITES TO PARTS OF THE FOOTHILLS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WILL START THE WEEK WITH AN ANOMALOUS 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS. BY MIDWEEK, A TROUGH ORIGINATING NEAR
HUDSON BAY WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS QUEBEC. THIS
PLACES NEW ENGLAND ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO INDUCE A JET
STREAK AND SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE
ORIENTATION OF THESE FEATURES SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS LOOKING QUITE HOT, WITH TUESDAY COMING
INTO FOCUS AS THE DAY OF GREATEST HEAT IMPACT. SEEING SOME SIGNS OF
AN ANOMALOUSLY HOT AIRMASS: THE NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE IS
INDICATING BOTH 700 MB AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE. THIS TRANSLATES TO 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 20-23 C, WHICH
IS ADVERTISED ON BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
FROM MONDAY- WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR
EVEN HOTTER, POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
IF WE CAN ACHIEVE DEEP MIXING WITH SUCH AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
COLUMN. A SOUTHWEST WIND SHOULD PRECLUDE COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
OUTSIDE OF THE MIDCOAST. THE ONE SAVING GRACE WILL BE MORE
TOLERABLE DEW POINTS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 60S RATHER
THAN 70S BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE.
THE OTHER HEADLINE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK AS THE ATTENDANT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA, WHICH
RIGHT NOW IS TIMED TO BE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY NIGHT
(STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE GIVEN WE ARE FOUR DAYS OUT). THE
FEATURE OF PARTICULAR INTEREST FOR THIS SETUP IS A POTENTIAL
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) MOVING OVER THE REGION; STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF 7-8 C/KM. IN ADDITION,
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON RATHER ROBUST WIND FIELDS/SHEAR,
BOTH ACROSS THE 0-1 KM AND 0-6 KM LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
IT ALL TIMES OUT BUT THE INGREDIENTS ARE CERTAINLY ON THE TABLE
FOR A POTENTIAL HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER EVENT TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A DAY 5 15% SEVERE RISK FOR
THE THE MAJORITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE, GENERALLY NORTH OF
A CONCORD-PORTLAND-ROCKLAND LINE.
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE FRONT CLEARING SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS BRINGS A SHARP DROP IN DEW POINTS INTO
THE 40S-50S THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WITH A
STILL WARM AIRMASS ALOFT AND SOME DOWNSLOPING NORTHWEST WINDS,
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ABOVE AVERAGE, POSSIBLY NEAR 90 IN THE WARM
SPOTS.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 6Z SUNDAY...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY. OTHER THAN
EARLY MORNING VCFG NEAR LEB, ONLY EXPECT A LIGHT CU FIELD AND
WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW GIVING WAY TO LOCAL WIND INFLUENCES. THIS
IS MAINLY VIA A SEABREEZE ALONG THE ME/NH COAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SSE WIND SHIFT EARLY AFTERNOON FOR PSM/PWM/RKD.
OUTLOOK:
TONIGHT NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR OTHER THAN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT
OR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AT HIE AND LEB.
MONDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT INTO WED AM BRINGS
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TIMING AND
EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS IS UNCERTAIN, BUT MVFR OR IFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION IN TS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY
NORTHERLY THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS WELL.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW INCREASES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SCA
CONDITIONS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE WATERS SOMETIME IN THE
LATE TUESDAY TO EARLY WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH WINDS TURNING
WEST TO NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO STAY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, KEEPING WINDS MAINLY OUT OF
THE WEST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONT
COULD CROSS THE WATERS DURING THAT TIME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CORNWELL
AVIATION...EKSTER
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