772
FXUS61 KGYX 111816
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
216 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THROUGH SUNDAY.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS BRING MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PEAK OCCURING ON TUESDAY. HUMIDITY ABATES THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL.
3. A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A 500MB SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.
THIS AFTERNOON'S CUMULUS FIELD WILL FADE WITH SUNSET, AND THEN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO COOLER THAN THE NBM AND LEAN
MORE ON MOS, WHICH PUTS LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT 40S IN SOME
OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CT RIVER.
FOR SUNDAY, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S,
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS COMFORTABLE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW AN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE, SO COASTAL
AREAS MAY TEMPERATURES STAY IN THE 70S. SUNDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 50S (AND
POSSIBLE 40S ACROSS THE NORTH) AND PATCHY VALLEY FOG.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ANOMALOUS RIDGING RESPONSIBLE FOR ALL TIME RECORD HEAT IN PORTIONS
OF MONTANA WILL STRETCH EASTWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE RIDGE
STRETCHES EAST TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL CLIMB TO +15C TO +17C
MONDAY AND +20C TO +23C TUESDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S MONDAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 70S
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING CUMULATIVE HEAT STRESS INTO WEDNESDAY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY WILL KEEP THE HUMIDITY IN
CHECK, WHILE ON TUESDAY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL
BRING HEAT INDICES 95-100F ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO DROP BACK INTO
THE 50S WHILE HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY. TROUGHING GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPERATURES SINK BACK INTO THE 80S WITH LOWS IN 50S AND 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS SE CANADA TUESDAY THAT
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5C/KM WILL BRING MU CAPE GREATER THAN 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS
WHICH WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE LATEST ECMWF EFI SHOWS
THE COMBINATION OF CAPE AND SHEAR WILL APPROACH THE 99TH PERCENTILE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE FRONT,
AND THEREFORE TRIGGER FOR STORMS, WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE AREA UNTIL
TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, FEATURES SUCH AS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE
POORLY RESOLVED AT THIS TIME RANGE SO CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS OF
HEATING ALLOWING FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE PAST
SUNSET. SPC MAINTAINS A 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS
ON THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND THIS IS IN LINE
WITH MACHINE LEARNING PROBABILITIES OUT OF CSU. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TIMING TRENDS WITH THE FRONT AS A FASTER ARRIVAL WOULD LEAD TO MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL PUSH TOWARDS
THE COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE SEVERE STORM THREAT LIKELY
DIMINISHING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...IFR TO LIFR FROM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT HIE AND
LEB LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF SUNDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR TO LIFR FROM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT HIE AND LEB.
OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING STORMS THAT COULD BRING
TEMPO RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS.
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST 25 TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5
FEET. A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS
OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/SCHROETER
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