609
FXUS61 KGYX 121840
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARD ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS.
2. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES OF 95 TO 100 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITY ABATES
WEDNESDAY WHILE HOT CONDITIONS LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
3. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
STARTING TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN DRY AND PLEASANT WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS. LIKE LAST EVENING, THE DIURNAL CU WILL FADE AFTER
SUNSET, BUT SOME WE'LL HAVE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT AND AM NOT EXPECTING THE HIGH CLOUDS
TO CURB RADIATIONAL COOLING. SO LOW TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN
CLOSER TO THE COOLER MOS AND MOSTLY IN THE 50S. THE EXCEPTIONS
ARE NORTHERN VALLEYS COULD SEE THE UPPER 40S, AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NH MAY STAY IN THE LOWER 60S.
TEMPERATURES START TO CLIMB ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, AND SOUTH TO SOUTH WINDS CARRY A WARMER AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION. GOOD MIXING AND 850MB TEMPERATURES OF +15C TO
+17C SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME 90F READING IN SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SW ME. FORTUNATELY,
DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S, KEEPING HEAT INDEX
VALUES CLOSE TO THE TEMPERATURES. THE SEABREEZE SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS FOR THE COASTLINE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S,
ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN ME.
THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY, BUT MODELS ARE HONING IN ON A
500MB SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THAT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHER OF THE
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF NH AND INTO WESTERN ME. CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK PRETTY MARGINAL, SO
HAVE HELD OFF ADDING THESE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BRING.
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE FAR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT IT
WILL OTHERWISE BE DRY. LIGHT S/SW FLOW AND THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILDER OVERNIGHT, PUTTING LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S, EXCEPT SOME 50S ACROSS THE NORTH. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE THAT RECEIVE RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN FORECAST THINKING REGARDING A SHORT
PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT A PIECE OF THE HOT AIR MASS BREWING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVECT INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH T8S CLIMBING
TO +20C TO +23C. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT HIGHER DEW
POINT AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE MIXING TO AROUND 850 MB SHOULD
KEEP DEW POINTS FROM CLIMBING INTO THE OPPRESSIVE TERRITORY OF
+70F. NEVERTHELESS, HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S COMBINED WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BRING WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES INTO THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING
AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO LOWS STAYING IN
THE 70S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE FRONT WILL DROP DEW POINTS INTO
50S ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE OVERALL AIR MASS REMAINS VERY WARM. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY OUT OF THE WNW WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL
PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND THE COASTAL PLAIN
OF MAINE. TROUGHING WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A STEADY DOWNWARD TREND IN
TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST ROUND OF NWP MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF EFI
NOW SHOWS THE OVERLAP OF CAPE AND SHEAR WILL APPROACH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE 99TH PERCENTILE NORTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS. AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL
FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH QUEBEC TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS APPROACHING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES AMONGST MODELS WHICH WILL PLAY A ROLE IN STRENGTH
AND COVERAGE OF STORMS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS
TO FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE FINER DETAINS WILL COME INTO
VIEW WITHIN 48 HOURS OF THE EVENT SO THE 12Z RUNS TOMORROW
SHOULD BRING THINGS INTO FOCUS. AT THIS TIME, DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS AND MU CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT SUPER CELL STRUCTURES AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5C/KM WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL. IF A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS MATERIALIZES AS ADVERTISED BY CAMS DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOLLOWED BY HAIL. MODEST CURVATURE IN LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS ALSO SUGGEST A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SPC MAINTAINS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
AND A MARGINAL THROUGH ALL BUT ALL OF SOUTHERN NH. SPC ALSO HAS
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HATCHING TO SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD BE
CAPABLE OF WINDS TO 75 MPH AND HAIL SIZE TO 2 INCHES.
AGAIN, THERE IS SOME VARIANCE IN TIMING WHILE A MULTI MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGEST STORMS WILL ARRIVE AT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM. STORMS WILL QUICKLY TRACK SE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO SUSTAIN STRENGTH AFTER
SUNSET WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR. CHANCES APPEAR TOO LOW FOR TAF
INCLUSION OF FOG AT HIE AND LEB AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
REST OF MONDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAYBE A COUPLE
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR TO
IFR RESTRICTIONS, AND CHANCES FOR THESE MAY SHOW UP IN A FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCE AT HIE, AUG, AND MAYBE RKD AND PWM.
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, BUT PATCHY FOG COULD BRING LOCALIZED IFR
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR ANY SITES THAT RECEIVE RAIN ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME BEFORE
POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA ARRIVES LATE DAY OR AT NIGHT, BRINGING
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT BRINGING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW. WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SW FLOW TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD
5-7 FEET LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CROSSES
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS OFFSHORE WHILE WINDS AND SEAS
LIKELY DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WINDS GENERALLY STAY WSW
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/SCHROETER
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