947
FXUS61 KGYX 141000
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
600 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH I HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING AS A RATHER ROBUST MCS IS DIVING DOWN
OUT OF QUEBEC. IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER, THESE AREAS MAY SEE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT TODAY WITH GREATER HUMIDITY CREATING WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 95 AND 100. IF SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS TODAY,
TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND REMAIN WELL HYDRATED. HUMIDITY
DECREASES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, REMAINING WARM.
2. SEVERE WEATHER, POTENTIALLY LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT, IS LIKELY
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS TODAY. THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM 6 PM
TO 2 AM. DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
3. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT ALSO A
COOLING TREND INTO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY CLIMB THIS MORNING AFTER A MILD NIGHT.
ALOFT, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 20C THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RESULTANT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SWELL INTO
THE 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN
ENOUGH SUN, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NH MAY ALSO PUSH INTO THE LOWER
90S.
THE WIDESPREAD HEAT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY AS A
MOIST AIRMASS SURGES IN FROM THE WEST. MEAN DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES PUSH SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN MONDAY, WITH
VALUES TOPPING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. THIS ADDITION WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING INTO 95 TO 100
RANGE, WARRANTING THE CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR A
BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA (SANS THE MAINE MIDCOAST AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS, AND FAR NORTHERN COOS COUNTY, NH) TODAY.
THANKFULLY, THE WARMEST PLUME OF TEMPS ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, NOT ALIGNING WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING. THIS CREATES A VERY WARM SETUP FOR
OVERNIGHT, BUT DRIER AIR WILL BE ARRIVING THROUGH WED MORNING.
THE PLUME IS PROGRESSIVE, AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THE
TIME WEDNESDAY MORNING ARRIVES. HOWEVER, IT'S PACE SLOWS AS IT
DRAPES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE DELMARVA REGION.
THUS WARM TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WED AND THURS, ALBEIT AMID A DRIER
(LOWER HUMIDITY) AIRMASS.
NE WINDS INCREASE WED WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING. WHILE FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISE AROUND 90 FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS, THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL OFFER SOME
RECOVERY HOURS, AS THEY DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WED
NIGHT, AND COOLER THURS NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO HAVE NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS INTO AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5), A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR CENTRAL
NH AND INTERIOR WESTERN ME, AND A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR
COASTAL ME AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH.
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A STRONG H5 S/WV
TROF FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR A RATHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES
AND MODESTLY HIGH DEW POINTS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED THROUGH STEEP HEIGHT
FALLS AND AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER, WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT WELL AFTER SUNSET.
LATEST CAMS AND RRFS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT MUCAPE IN THE
2000-3000 J/KG RANGE, MLCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG, AND 0-6KM
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
SOME DRIER AIR WITHIN THE LOW-LVLS, WHICH IS HELPING TO BOOST
DCAPE INTO THE 800-1000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES OF UP TO 7.5C/KM ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH GIVEN THE EXPECTED
SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN
THEMSELVES. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT, SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES POTENTIALLY COLLIDE. DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BUT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND
0-1 KM SRH ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC BEFORE APPROACHING NORTHERN NH AND
NORTHWESTERN ME BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6PM-8PM. STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AND FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS
ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE 3PM-6PM TIMEFRAME
THOUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN THE 1AM-3AM
TIMEFRAME.
THIS IS NOT A YEARLY, TYPICAL THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS, AND IT
BECOMES EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AS THE THREAT CONTINUES AFTER DARK. IT
IS HIGHLY ADVISED TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS,
ESPECIALLY ONES THAT WILL WAKE YOU UP WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGHEST RISK
AREAS ALSO INCLUDE MANY POPULAR CAMPING AND RECREATION AREAS,
WHICH MAKE THOSE WHO ARE OUTDOORS EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO
FALLING TREES.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE MID-CONUS 500MB RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN, A NW FLOW REGIME
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EMBEDDED WILL BE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THAT LOOKS TO CROSS NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. WHILE THE
AIRMASS IS DRIER THAN THE EARLY WEEK EPISODE, THERE REMAINS THE
CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ITS PASSAGE.
DUE TO LESS MOISTURE, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE MORE
UNCERTAIN PARAMETER, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR A-PLENTY THROUGH THE
DAY.
A COOLER AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL HELP KEEP
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE CHANCES ARE LOW IN
THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY: VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME VALLEY FOG IN VICINITY OF AUG OR RKD TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO A ISOLATED TS TODAY, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD TS LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL.
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
POSSIBLE TORNADO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STORMS WILL BE
TOWARDS THE US/CAN BORDER THROUGH AUG/IZG/LEB, BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME NW WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WNW FLOW
PREVAILING. SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SCA WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY, BUT MAY SUBSIDE BRIEFLY THIS MORNING BEFORE AGAIN
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THESE THEN SHIFT NW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OFFSHORE WINDS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY AND TURN SW
AHEAD OF A FRONT THURSDAY. WINDS TURN BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MEZ012>014-018>021-023-024-033.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NHZ002>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...COMBS/SCHROETER
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