846
FXUS61 KGYX 141858
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM WESTERN ONTARIO HAS PREVENTED TEMPERATURES
FROM CLIMBING AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE THE HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS
EXTENDED LONGER INTO TONIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEVERE STORMS, LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT, REMAIN LIKELY INTO TONIGHT.
THE GREATEST THREAT WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
6 PM TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AND COOS COUNTY.
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH A
TIME OF ARRIVAL AROUND 8 PM AND MAY PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT.
2. ADDITIONAL COLD FRONTS WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CLUSTERS OF
STORMS TRACKING ESE ACROSS QUEBEC INTO NW MAINE. THESE STORMS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT JET STREAK ACROSS ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. THIS JET STREAK COMBINED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THIS SUPPORT LASTING WELL
INTO TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE HINDERED SURFACE WARMING TODAY.
DESPITE WEAKER SURFACE HEATING, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 7.5C/KM WILL AID IN BUILDING INSTABILITY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST ML CAPE WILL BUILD IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AHEAD OF A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS THAT
APPROACHES NORTHERN NH AND NW MAINE THIS EVENING. THIS STRONG
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50-60 KTS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS, SOME POTENTIALLY INTENSE. ANY SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS
THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS INCLUDING
HAIL SIZE TO 2 INCHES, WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH, AND PERHAPS A
STRONG (EF2) TORNADO. SPC MAINTAINS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A RARE 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY
WITH SIGNIFICANT HATCHING TO ACCOUNT FOR A TORNADO TO EF2
STRENGTH. CAMS REMAIN MIXED WITH RESPECT TO UPSCALE GROWTH,
WHILE THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE
INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS LEADING TO DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE
PRIMARY THREAT AS THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
STORMS WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTING THAT STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS COASTAL MAINE AND
CENTRAL NH. THIS SET UP IS PARTICULARLY RARE AS LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THESE STORMS WILL STILL POTENTIALLY BE SEVERE WELL PAST
SUNSET THANKS TO THE STRONG FORCING AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THEREFORE IT IS ENCOURAGED THAT PEOPLE HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS
TO RECEIVE A WARNING AND ONE THAT COULD WAKE THEM UP IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT PEOPLE ARE AWARE OF
THEIR SURROUNDINGS WITH RESPECT TO TREES AND HAVE ACCESS TO
STURDY SHELTERS AS POPULAR AREAS FOR CAMPING ARE IN THE AREAS OF
HIGHEST RISK. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) TO THE MAINE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL NH. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DCAPE WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED TO 700-1000 J/KG INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL PROMOTE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING AROUND SUNRISE PER
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL LARGELY BE GONE
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. RECENT HRRR RUNS
SUGGEST WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY RESIDE OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD
INHIBIT WARMING. DESPITE LOWER BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE, CAMS
SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BUILD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES TICK
DOWN A COUPE OF DEGREES THURSDAY WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. CAMS SUGGEST MU CAPE WILL BUILD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
WITH AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, SOME COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
WHILE NOT AS INTENSE AS STORMS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY: SCATTERED TS MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ME AND NH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, WITH LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND POSSIBLE TORNADO. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE
OF TS WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS NEAR THE US/CAN BORDER
THROUGH HIE/AUG/RKD, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. MAINLY VFR WEDNESDAY WITH NW WIND GUSTS
TO 25 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH WNW FLOW
PREVAILING. SHRA/TSRA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BRING TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY BRING A PERIOD OF AT
LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
SCA WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS 20 KTS OR LESS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THURSDAY WITH SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE
NH...NONE
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ150>152.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER
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