562
FXUS61 KGYX 301052
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAINFALL IS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD
WATCH. AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS
POSSIBLE.
2. A QUICK BREAK IN WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE
WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY
THRU THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP UPPER TROF AND STRONG SURFACE
LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL SPIN THRU THE GULF OF MAINE INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING EAST.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW LIMITED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND THE THREAT FOR FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CAMS HAVE
LARGELY STRUGGLED WITH HANDLING RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND SHOW
VARIABILITY IN SHOWERS REDEVELOPING TODAY. MODELS GENERALLY
SUGGEST SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER BLOSSOMS ACROSS SE NH
AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON THAT COULD BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND STORMS REALLY DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BY FRI CONDITIONS WILL HAVE IMPROVE, BUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN
BENEATH LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT. THAT WILL GENERALLY MEAN CLEARER
SKIES EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY DIURNAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE SAME
WILL BE TRUE OF SAT, WITH ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED.
BY SUN THE NEXT TROF WILL BE APPROACHING. UPPER FLOW WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY, MORE OR LESS PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SO
I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE MOVING VERY FAST. AS SUCH I HAVE NO
ISSUE WITH NBM POP BEING SPREAD OUT OVER TWO DAYS, INTO MON. IT
IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE A PLAY IN TWO ACTS. ACT
ONE BEING CONVECTION FORMING SUN AND FALLING APART OVER WESTERN
ZONES, AND ACT TWO WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING AGAIN MON SLIGHTLY
EAST AND DEPARTING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT: PERIODS OF SHRA, LOW CIGS WILL LEAD TO MVFR TO
IFR/LIFR THROUGH MORNING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
5-10KTS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS
EXCEEDING 20KTS DURING THE DAY. A TREND TOWARDS MVFR IS LIKELY
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING
LOWER RESTRICTIONS. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VFR
TONIGHT WHILE AREAS THAT DON'T SCATTER COULD SEE IFR/LIFR CIGS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOCAL MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY SUN
THRU MON.
MARINE
FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THRU TODAY, GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY BY THE EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING MORE QUICKLY THAN SEAS AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THERE
MAY ALSO BE PATCHY MARINE FOG THRU MIDDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER
ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH ONSHORE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE SUN, AND GUSTS
MAY APPROACH 25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152>154.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/SCHROETER
AVIATION...SCHROETER
MARINE...LEGRO
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