758
FXUS61 KGYX 312326
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
726 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WE SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAINFALL POSSIBLE. NO
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
OUT TO SEA. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL EXTEND TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. RAP FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT WE COULD SEE UPWARDS
OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR. THUS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT THE
THREAT FOR STRONG CONVECTION APPEARS LOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, GIVING WAY TO ONLY A
FEW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT VALLEY AND COASTAL FOG SEEMS
LIKELY BUT DENSITY AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, WILL
BROAD BRUSH PATCHY FOG OVER THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE ENTIRE
COAST IN THE 06Z TO 13Z TIMEFRAME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FORECAST LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY
DRY SATURDAY BUT A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BIT WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD, BUT STILL AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO MAINLY RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE
IN THE DAY SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT AS WE TRANSITION BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL THEN BE A BIT MORE MILD THAN
TONIGHT, EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH INCREASING SW FLOW INTO NEW ENGLAND. WILL EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUDINESS FOR THE DAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
WEST. CAN'T RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS LIMITING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THESE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED.
INTO MONDAY, CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF THE
500MB TROUGH AMPLITUDE AND TIMING IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THE
FAVORED SOLUTION IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WEIGHTED MOSTLY WITH
THE GEPS AND GEFS, IS THE LEAST AMPLIFIED. THIS LEADS TO A DRIER
SOLUTION EARLY MONDAY, BUT MAY ALLUDE TO A LATER PASSAGE (RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING).
WHILE STILL FRESH ON OUR MINDS, THERE ARE A COUPLE FACTORS THAT
ARE MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SETUP THAN THE RECENT BROAD
CLOSED LOW...BUT ULTIMATELY THEY ARE DIFFERENT ANIMALS. THE
FIRST WAS SLOW MOVING AND BROUGHT THE THREAT FOR MULTI-DAY
PRECIPITATION, WHILE THIS PROSPECTIVE EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR IN
LESS THAN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, IN THAT BRIEF WINDOW THE MOISTURE
CEILING IS HIGHER. DURING THE LAST EVENT, IVT INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WAS ROUTED AROUND THE BASE OF THE INCOMING LOW BEFORE
WRAPPING IN FROM A SE DIRECTION OFF THE GULF OF MAINE TOWARDS
THE COAST. THIS EVENT HAS A VERY DIRECT SW INJECTION ALONG THE
EAST COAST THAT IS FAVORABLY CHANNELED BETWEEN LOW PRES IN THE
OHIO VALLEY AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS IS
NOTED IN LIKELY GEFS AND ENS IVT PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 500
KG/M/S. ECMWF COMPARISON TO CLIMO ALSO INDICATES PWAT VALUES
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THUS, WOULD EXPECT EXCELLENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH EFFICIENT
RAINFALL, BUT SHORTER DURATION. THE GENERAL PATTERN SUPPORTS
THIS RETURN OF MOISTURE, BUT YET TO BE RESOLVED IS TIMING OF
THESE INGREDIENTS. THIS CAN MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE COMPLETE SYSTEM VS. ONLY SEEING A COUPLE
COMPONENTS COME IN LINE BEFORE MERGING OFFSHORE. AT THIS POINT,
EITHER THE DISCONNECT OF INGREDIENTS OR BREVITY PREVENTS A
NOTABLE SIGNAL FOR EXCESSIVE CLIMO QPF BASED ON THE EFI.
AFTER THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH, THE CLOSED LOW MAY
REMAIN TO THE WEST ADVECTING MOISTURE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
AT THIS TIME, MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF OUR
AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AMID A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SATURDAY: SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BY LEB WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE AWAY OVER THE NEXT HOUR, AND THEN LARGELY VFR EXPECTED
TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SAT, WITH ANY SHOWER THREAT EVEN MORE
ISOLATED.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CLOUDINESS. SHRA POSSIBLE
FOR TERMINALS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND WESTERN ME, WITH
MORNING LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE TOWARDS AUG/RKD. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: MORE AREAWIDE SHRA AND EMBEDDED TS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VIS RESTRICTION POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR AT LEAST THE NORTHERN TERMINALS,
SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS STILL POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY: LOW CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS, BUT SHRA POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTH AND WESTERN AREAS.
MARINE
SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THRU THE EXTENDED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES SUN,
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE WELL OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS, BUT GUIDANCE DOES NOT POINT
TOWARDS A HIGH CHANCE OF SCA CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF
FOG DEVELOPING SUN NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/HARGROVE
AVIATION...LEGRO
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