746
FXUS61 KGYX 021014
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING OTHER THAN TO
ADJUST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING SLIGHTLY AND TO ADD FOG IN
SOME AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, BUT HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED.
2. HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. TO THE NORTH SOME MARINE FOG HAS LINGERED THRU THE DAY
AND IS NOW PUSHING TOWARDS THE MAINE COASTLINE. I ANTICIPATE IT
WILL CREEP INTO THE LOWER KENNEBEC VALLEY BY EARLY MORNING.
AFTER SUNRISE SOME SCATTERING OUT OF THE STRATUS IS EXPECTED,
BUT IT SHOULD MORE OR LESS HANG OUT OFFSHORE ALL DAY.
TODAY I ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
THE BULK OF PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF EVEN THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. SO FOG MOVES IN AGAIN TOWARDS SUNSET AND WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT.
THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH THE REGION AND TRY TO
MOVE THRU THE AREA EARLY MON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR SOMETHING GREATER THAN A HALF INCH OF QPF IS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NH. IN ADDITION THE ECWMF EFI HAS CONTINUED TO
GET MORE ROBUST WITH RAINFALL THRU THE END OF MON. THIS INCLUDES
MOST OF NH WITH 80 PERCENT OR MORE OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH
A SEASONABLY HEAVY RAINFALL. I BELIEVE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN NH AS WELL
AS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BOTH OF WHICH MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PRECIP ON MON. THE LEAST LIKELY SPOT FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE WEST
CENTRAL MAINE. OVERALL THE NBM IS GENERALLY BELOW 1 INCH QPF,
WITH MOST AREAS CLOSER TO A HALF INCH OR LESS. THAT SEAMS
REASONABLE THAN SOME OF THE MORE BULLISH RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS.
WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
MON. WITH THE SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM OVERALL, THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS MORE FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH PEAK HEATING. AS A RESULT
SOME LONG RANGE CAM GUIDANCE IS NOW INITIATION QUITE A BIT OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER, AND SPC HAS
ADDED A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN HEATING WITH
PLENTY OF FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE, I DO NOT SEE ANY
REASON TO INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER NBM
THUNDER PROBABILITIES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE SEEM ON TARGET.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT CLEAR THE AREA. ABUNDANT CLOUDS ARE GOING TO BRING
ABOUT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY MANAGING TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. BY TUESDAY WE START TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ONCE AGAIN AS WE END UP DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA KICKING
OFF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT
HUMID CONDITIONS AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HEAT
BUILDS SOMEWHAT AS WELL, BUT WITH THE RIDGE MAINLY OFF TO THE
EAST IT WON'T BE QUITE AS DRAMATIC AS THIS TIME LAST MONTH. WE
LIKELY SEE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE 90F DEGREE MARK BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE ELEVATED HUMIDITY MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER, BUT NOTHING SUGGESTS MAJOR HEAT.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES, IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO
BE RELYING ON DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES TO BE STALLED IN THE VICINITY AND/OR SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH TO OUR WEST. EITHER WAY,
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AND MANY LOCATIONS MAY
CONTINUE THEIR DRY STREAKS.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT: CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION
SHOWER THRU MORNING, BUT OVERALL EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY AT LEB AND HIE. HOWEVER HIGH
CLOUD COVER MAY DELAY THE ONSET. ALONG THE MIDCOAST SOME MARINE
FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CREEP INLAND, HAVING ALREADY
REACHED RKD. EVENTUALLY I BRING SOME LOW CIGS INTO AUG AS WELL.
SOME LINGERING LOW CLOUD IS POSSIBLE AROUND PENOBSCOT BAY IN THE
MORNING BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS. MORE
WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN BOTH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY
WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AT SOME TERMINALS DURING THE NIGHT AS
WE ENTER A PERIOD OF INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT RESULTING IN POSSIBLY SCA CONDITIONS. AREAS
OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LINGER THRU TODAY AND THEN
EXPAND AGAIN TONIGHT AND BE LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/EKSTER/LEGRO
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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